The breach of the Kakhovka Dam on June 6, 2023, resulted in a flood that sparked a water shortage crisis in southern Ukraine. The dam’s reservoir used to feed the canals, which are now drying up.
Following the dam’s breach and the resulting flood, local farmers are grappling with diminished water resources.
The disruption at Kakhovka Dam in June 2023 has triggered a water crisis in southern Ukraine, posing a threat to farmlands and global food supplies. NASA’s Harvest Consortium is closely observing the crisis and developing satellite-enabled tools to evaluate the damage, as authorities signal potential desertification by 2024.
Images captured by the Operational Land Imager-2 (OLI-2) on Landsat 9 on May 17, 2023, show the North Crimean Canal and the Kakhovsky Canal filled with water.
These waterways are seen with reduced water levels in an image captured on June 18, 2023, by the Operational Land Imager-2 (OLI-2) on Landsat 9.
The Kakhovka Dam Breach
After the breach of the Kakhovka Dam on June 6, 2023, water overflowed from the neighboring reservoir into the Dnipro River, towards Kherson city and the Black Sea, causing severe flooding downstream. Although the flooding receded after a few weeks, a slower, but critical, water shortage crisis is evolving in southern Ukraine as canals usually nourished by the Kakhovka Reservoir are drying.
Observing the Impact
Scientists from NASA’s Harvest Consortium are meticulously monitoring the situation. They aim to comprehend the event’s effect on farmers, as part of a broader initiative to devise analytical tools, grounded in satellite data, to swiftly evaluate how crop conditions and Ukraine’s war are influencing global food supplies.
“The major problem for farmers currently is the lack of water,” mentioned Inbal Becker-Reshef, NASA Harvest’s director. “The canal systems that usually depend on the Kakhovka Reservoir for water have now lost connection with the reservoir and are drying.”
NASA Harvest’s analysis indicates that all four primary inlets feeding the canal networks are disconnected. Despite substantial rainfall in the spring and early summer preventing complete dryness, satellite imagery indicates a thinning of the canals, suggesting significant water reductions.
Satellite images from Planet Labs, dated June 3, 2023, and July 19, 2023, offer a detailed view of changes at the North Crimean Canal’s inlet.
Potential Desertification
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine has highlighted that the absence of water could convert hundreds of thousands of hectares of farmland in this area into “deserts” by 2024. The ministry also noted that the lack of irrigation could indirectly result in decreased crop production on non-irrigated fields due to income loss. “One and a half million hectares will not be fully utilized,” said Mykola Solskyi, the minister of agrarian policy and food of Ukraine.
Visual Documentation
Images at the top of the page reveal the inlets to the North Crimean Canal and the Kakhovsky Canal—two of the four primary canal systems sustained by the Kakhovka Reservoir. The left image, captured on May 17, 2023, shows the inlets full of water. The second image, taken on June 18, shows the same canals after the reservoir water levels had decreased below what is required for water to enter the canals. Both images were obtained with Landsat 9’s Operational Land Imager-2 (OLI-2). (It should be noted that the apparent browning in the center-pivot fields is due to the regular harvest cycle, not water shortage. As winter wheat and other crops are harvested and tilled, the fields turn brown before the next crop is sown.)
Two images above, from Planet Labs, depict a closer look at changes at the North Crimean Canal’s inlet. The left image shows the canal on June 3, 2023. The second image shows the same area on July 19, 2023, as the inlet and canal were becoming dry.
Crops at Risk
“Many summer crops cultivated in Kherson—like corn, wheat, sunflower, tomatoes, and melons—depend heavily on irrigation, and summer rains are unlikely to provide enough water to maintain crop health and average yields of irrigated crops,” stated Becker-Reshef.
Satellite images from June 7, 2022, and June 18, 2023, reveal that post-dam breach, the reservoir that once maintained the canals has largely emptied, unveiling wide areas of mud.
Satellite Imaging
The irrigation challenges are evident in the pair of satellite images above. Following the dam breach, the reservoir that used to sustain the canals has mostly drained, revealing large patches of mud. The top image was captured by OLI on Landsat 8 on June 7, 2022, around one year before the dam was damaged. The bottom image, captured by OLI-2 on Landsat 9, shows the same area on June 18, after roughly 75% of the water in the reservoir had drained—an amount of water about equal to Utah’s Great Salt Lake.
Satellite altimetry data from the U.S. Foreign Agriculture Service and the French data services center (Theia) confirm that water levels fell by several meters within days following the dam’s failure. This came after water levels had risen to a 30-year high due to a wet spring.
Flooding Impacts
The image below shows flooding along the Dnipro River on June 9, 2023, three days after the dam breach, compared with June 1, 2023. The east side of the river, which is generally at a lower elevation and more prone to flooding than the west side, experienced the worst flooding. During the peak of the flood, several thousand homes were inundated, tens of thousands of people lost power, and over 40,000 were compelled to evacuate. Images before and during the flooding were captured by the OLI on Landsat 8 and OLI-2 on Landsat 9, respectively.
Efforts by NASA Harvest
The NASA Harvest team, in collaboration with Sertit (University of Strasbourg), utilized Planet and Sentinel-3 data to create a comprehensive map of flooded croplands, inundated villages, and open water that they provided to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture as part of the humanitarian response following the dam breach. They also continue to monitor the main canal inlets from the Kakhovka Reservoir and are developing ways to use satellites to trace the amount of irrigation water fields receive throughout the summer.
Crop Health Monitoring
Analysts at NASA Harvest will also be observing the health of crops using tools such as the GIMMS Global Agricultural Monitoring tool and the AGMET EO Indicator dashboard. By early July 2023, these tools had not shown a significant decrease in crop greenness due to regular rains, although the absence of irrigation water could start to brown crops in the future.
Effects on Ukraine’s Agriculture
The semi-arid steppe ecosystems found in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts typically receive 100 to 120 millimeters (4 to
Table of Contents
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Ukraine Water Crisis
What happened to the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine?
The Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine was breached on June 6, 2023, causing severe downstream flooding. This event also resulted in a long-term water crisis, as the canals typically fed by the dam’s reservoir started to dry out.
How is the Kakhovka Dam breach impacting the agriculture?
The Kakhovka Dam breach has led to depleted water supplies, threatening farmland in southern Ukraine and potentially global food supplies. The impact on farmers is a primary concern. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food warns that the loss of water could potentially turn hundreds of thousands of hectares of farmland into deserts by 2024.
What role is NASA playing in the situation?
NASA’s Harvest Consortium is closely monitoring the situation and developing satellite-based tools to assess the impact of the dam breach on farming and food supplies globally. They are also keeping track of the health of crops using tools like the GIMMS Global Agricultural Monitoring tool and the AGMET EO Indicator dashboard.
What is the risk of desertification due to the dam breach?
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine noted that the loss of water for hundreds of thousands of hectares could turn farmland in this area into “deserts” by 2024.
How is the dam breach impacting Ukraine’s grain exports?
According to estimates from the Ukrainian Grain Council, the flood caused by the dam breach could lead to a 14 percent reduction in the volume of Ukraine’s grain exports.
How are the water levels being monitored after the dam breach?
Scientists with NASA’s Harvest Consortium are using satellite observations to monitor water levels and the subsequent impact on crops and global food supplies. They have noticed that all four of the major inlets that supply the canal networks have been disconnected and water levels are reducing.
