In a new study, scholars employed statistical techniques to ascertain the yearly likelihood of mass shootings in various states and designated public places, thereby providing invaluable data for emergency preparedness to security personnel.
Recent research has made strides in evaluating the likelihood of mass shootings occurring in specific states as well as targeted public locations like schools and eateries.
Despite appearing random, mass shootings in the United States follow certain patterns, according to a groundbreaking study by Iowa State University, which was published in the journal “Risk Analysis.” The researchers designed a methodology for estimating the annual odds of a mass shooting taking place in individual states and various public settings such as shopping centers and educational institutions. This innovative methodology could prove instrumental for security experts in planning and readying for prospective emergency scenarios.
For the analytical part of the study, Associate Professor Cameron MacKenzie and doctoral candidate Xue Lei of Iowa State University utilized statistical models and computer-generated simulations based on a mass shootings database curated by the Violence Project from 1966 to 2020. According to the Violence Project’s definition, a mass shooting is an event where a gunman kills four or more people in a public setting. From 1966 to 2020, the United States witnessed 173 public mass shootings, averaging at least one such incident per year since 1966.
Upon establishing a probability distribution for yearly mass shootings in the U.S., the researchers employed two separate models to predict the annual count of mass shootings for each state. These predictions subsequently enabled them to compute both the expected frequency of mass shootings and the odds of at least one such event occurring in each state within a year.
The Violence Project further categorizes mass shootings by venue type, and using this data, MacKenzie and Lei calculated the likelihood of mass shootings in nine diverse public settings, including schools and places of worship, specifically in California and Iowa, as well as their two largest high schools.
Notable conclusions of the study include:
- The states most susceptible to mass shootings are the most populated ones: California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania. These states collectively constitute nearly 50% of all mass shootings.
- Some states, including Iowa and Delaware, have never been subjected to a mass shooting.
- The annual risk of experiencing a mass shooting in the largest high school in California is approximately ten times higher than that of the largest Iowa high school.
- Since the 1970s, the frequency of mass shootings in the United States has seen an increase of about one additional shooting per decade.
A noteworthy point raised by MacKenzie is that the definition of a mass shooting varies. The Gun Violence Archive, for example, defines a mass shooting as an incident where four or more people are shot, irrespective of the location. When the researchers incorporated data from the Gun Violence Archive, the projected annual number of mass shootings was nearly a hundredfold higher than estimates based on the Violence Project’s data.
MacKenzie emphasizes that while the statistical likelihood of a student encountering a mass shooting in a K-12 school is exceedingly low, this offers little consolation to parents whose children have endured such a tragedy. Despite the grim realities, MacKenzie suggests that it is crucial not to be paralyzed by fear, stating that mass shootings, although rare, have extremely severe repercussions.
Reference: “Quantifying the risk of mass shootings at specific locations” by Xue Lei and Cameron MacKenzie, published on 22 August 2023 in Risk Analysis.
DOI: 10.1111/risa.14197
Table of Contents
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about mass shootings probability research
What is the primary objective of the Iowa State University study on mass shootings?
The primary objective of the study is to evaluate the annual likelihood of mass shootings in various U.S. states and specified public places like schools and restaurants. This is achieved through advanced statistical models and computer simulations, and the findings aim to assist security professionals in their emergency preparedness strategies.
What methodology did the researchers use?
Researchers Cameron MacKenzie and Xue Lei employed statistical methods and computer-generated simulations based on a database of mass shootings from 1966 to 2020, provided by the Violence Project. They subsequently used the data to create a probability distribution for mass shootings in the U.S. and applied various models to estimate the likelihood of such events occurring in individual states.
What is the Violence Project’s definition of a mass shooting?
According to the Violence Project, a mass shooting is defined as an event where four or more victims are killed by a firearm in a public setting.
What were the key findings of the study?
The study found that the most populous states—California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania—are the most susceptible to mass shootings. Additionally, some states like Iowa and Delaware have never experienced such incidents. The annual risk of a mass shooting occurring in the largest high school in California is about ten times greater than in the largest high school in Iowa.
How does the definition of mass shootings impact the findings?
The definition of what constitutes a mass shooting can significantly affect the estimated probabilities. For example, when data from the Gun Violence Archive—which has a broader definition—was applied, the predicted number of annual mass shootings skyrocketed.
What does the study say about the risk of mass shootings in schools?
The study emphasizes that while the statistical likelihood of a student encountering a mass shooting in a K-12 school is exceedingly low, the emotional impact of such an event is significant, and precautions should still be taken.
How can this research benefit emergency preparedness?
This research offers invaluable data that can guide security officials in planning and strategizing for potential emergency situations involving mass shootings. It can help pinpoint areas and venues that are more susceptible to such events.
What is the relevance of this research in the current sociopolitical climate?
Given the rise in mass shootings and ongoing debates around gun control, this research contributes critical data that can influence policy decisions and emergency response strategies.
More about mass shootings probability research
- Iowa State University Research Publication
- The Violence Project Database
- Gun Violence Archive
- Risk Analysis Journal
- U.S. Mass Shooting Statistics
- Emergency Preparedness Guidelines
- U.S. State Population Data
10 comments
Important research but kinda unsettling. It’s like we’re boiling down human tragedy to probabilities :/
MacKenzie points out a good thing – stats offer no comfort to those who’ve experienced such tragedies. It’s more than just numbers.
Wow, this study is eye-opening. It’s crazy to think that they can even predict something as random as mass shootings with stats.
As a parent, the school stats are terrifying. Stats are one thing, but when it’s ur own kid, you can’t help but worry.
so the most populous states have the most shootings huh? Well that kinda makes sense more people more problems I guess.
didn’t know studies like this existed. It’s scary but also kinda reassuring? Like, at least we’re getting a handle on it.
This kind of data modeling could have applications in other areas too, like finance or health. The possibilities are endless.
This is gold for policymakers! Armed with this data, they should be making better laws to protect us. No excuses.
If only we could predict climate change effects with such precision. Different field, I know, but still…
Interesting how the definition of ‘mass shooting’ can really skew the numbers. It’s all in how you look at the data, isn’t it?