A team of cognitive scientists has unveiled a groundbreaking discovery that sheds light on the possibility of expanding our capacity for forward-thinking. By developing a computational model, they have demonstrated how expertise can enhance the depth of our planning abilities.
Chess grandmasters have long been regarded as exemplars of strategic thinking, but can ordinary individuals acquire the skill to think further ahead with dedicated practice? To explore this question, the group of cognitive scientists embarked on developing a computational model capable of revealing our aptitude for planning future events. Their research not only deepens our understanding of the factors influencing decision-making but also showcases the potential for improving planning skills through practice.
Led by Wei Ji Ma, a professor of neuroscience and psychology at New York University (NYU), the study was conducted at NYU’s Center for Neural Science and published in the prestigious journal Nature. It focuses on the concept of “planning depth,” which refers to the number of steps an individual can foresee in decision-making.
Professor Ma explains, “While artificial intelligence has made remarkable strides in solving complex planning problems, our understanding of human planning, its nature, and its depth remains limited. Our work contributes to this knowledge by demonstrating that even a modest amount of practice can enhance planning depth.”
Although it has long been established that the ability to plan several steps into the future is a hallmark of human intelligence, it remains unclear whether skilled decision-makers plan more steps ahead than novices. This ambiguity arises due to the shortcomings of methods used to measure this ability, such as experiments involving board games, which often fail to accurately estimate planning depth.
To address this, the authors of the Nature paper devised an experiment involving a relatively simple yet strategically demanding game—a more sophisticated variant of tic-tac-toe. By observing participants’ thought processes during their decision-making, the researchers created a computer model based on artificial intelligence principles. This model enabled them to describe and predict the moves individuals would make when confronted with new game situations.
Ma clarifies, “In this computational model, players construct a ‘decision tree’ in their minds, much like planning multiple possible scenarios for a complex travel itinerary.”
Their calculations revealed that human behavior can be captured using a computational cognitive model rooted in a heuristic search algorithm. This algorithm outlines a sequence of promising moves for both players.
To validate the model, the researchers conducted a series of behavioral experiments with human participants. These experiments examined how players planned their moves under various scenarios, while also assessing their memory, capacity for learning from experiences, and ability to reconstruct their gameplay. Furthermore, the team conducted a Turing test experiment where observers, who had prior experience with the game, were tasked with determining whether sequences of moves were generated by the model or by human players. Surprisingly, these observers were only able to make the correct distinction about half the time, indicating that the model’s decision-making closely resembles that of a human. Interested individuals can access several of these experiments online via Ma’s laboratory website.
Overall, the results demonstrated that improved planning is driven by enhanced pattern recognition accuracy and quicker processing time. These outcomes underscore the advantages of practice and experience.
Ma notes, “It is widely acknowledged that cognitive abilities can improve through practice during adulthood. These findings reveal that even a relatively modest amount of practice can enhance the depth of our planning abilities. This opens up new avenues for research, such as investigating the development of planning skills in children or examining the retention of planning abilities in old age. Additionally, it is crucial to establish a connection between laboratory-based planning and real-life decision-making.”
The study was funded by the National Science Foundation and involved collaboration with several researchers, including Bas van Opheusden, a former NYU doctoral student and current research scientist at Generally Intelligent; Ionatan Kuperwajs, an NYU doctoral student; Gianni Galbiati, a former NYU researcher and current director of research and development at Vidrovr; Zahy Bnaya, a postdoctoral researcher at NYU’s Center for Neural Science; and Yunqi Li, a former NYU researcher and current doctoral student at Stanford University.
Table of Contents
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about future thinking abilities
Can thinking further ahead be learned with practice?
Yes, the research conducted by cognitive scientists suggests that thinking further ahead can indeed be improved through practice. The computational model developed in the study demonstrated that even a modest amount of practice can enhance the depth of planning abilities.
What is planning depth?
Planning depth refers to the number of steps an individual can anticipate or plan for in decision-making. It involves thinking ahead and considering multiple possible scenarios and their potential outcomes.
How did the researchers measure planning depth?
The researchers used a relatively simple game that required deep planning, akin to a more advanced version of tic-tac-toe. They developed a computational model based on artificial intelligence principles to observe and predict the moves made by participants in the game. This allowed them to assess and measure planning depth.
What factors contribute to better planning abilities?
The study found that better planning is driven by improved pattern recognition accuracy and faster processing time. Practice and experience play significant roles in enhancing these abilities.
How does this research contribute to our understanding of decision-making?
The research deepens our comprehension of decision-making processes by highlighting the influence of planning depth. It demonstrates that even with practice, individuals can improve their planning abilities, shedding light on the factors that impact decision-making.
Can the findings of this study be applied to real-life decision-making?
The researchers emphasize the importance of connecting laboratory-based planning to real-life decision-making. While the study focused on a specific game, further research could explore the applicability of these findings in various real-world contexts.
More about future thinking abilities
- Nature: Expertise increases planning depth in human gameplay
- New York University: Cognitive Scientists Unravel the Secret – Can We Learn To Think Further Ahead?
- NYU Center for Neural Science: Wei Ji Ma’s Laboratory Website
- National Science Foundation: NSF Homepage
5 comments
the fact that the researchers created a computer model to mimic human decision-making is incredible. it’s like they’re decoding our thought processes. and the finding that better planning comes from improved pattern recognition and faster processing is so interesting. it makes me realize the power of practice and experience in shaping our abilities.
this is so cool! the scientists made a computer model and found out that practice can make you better at planning ahead. i always thought chess players were super smart, but now i know anyone can get better with practice! amazing research!
woah, this study shows that we can actually improve our thinkin by practicing? that’s like mind-blowing! i wonder if i can get better at planning things if i practice more. gonna check out their website and try those experiments.
i’ve always wondered if some people are just better at planning than others. but this study says that even a little practice can make a difference! that gives me hope. maybe if i start practicing and learning from my experiences, i can become a better planner too. gonna give it a try!
this research is a game-changer! they used a computer model to study how people plan ahead, and it turns out practice can improve our planning depth. that’s fascinating! it shows that our cognitive abilities can keep getting better with practice. gonna share this with my friends who love chess and strategy games.