An extensive examination of worldwide data gathered over a span of three decades discloses a surging crisis of low back pain. Predictions suggest that, by 2050, 843 million individuals will be grappling with this condition, primarily due to population growth and the shifting age demographics.
The critical analysis of the 30-year-long data demonstrates a rising tendency in the prevalence of low back pain. By 2050, this condition is expected to impact nearly 843 million people globally, chiefly due to burgeoning population numbers and the aging populace.
Researchers express concern over the lack of a uniform approach to managing back pain and the shortage of adequate treatment options. They warn that this situation may provoke a healthcare disaster as low back pain has emerged as the principal cause of disability worldwide.
Australia is likely to witness an almost 50% surge in back pain cases by 2050. Asia and Africa are projected to experience the most significant increase in back pain incidents, indicating a shift in the geographical distribution of back pain cases.
These findings were recently unveiled in The Lancet Rheumatology and the fresh Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.
Lead author Professor Manuela Ferreira from Sydney Musculoskeletal Health, an initiative of the University of Sydney, Sydney Local Health District, and Northern Sydney Local Health District, stated, “Our evaluation uncovers a global escalation in low back pain cases, putting significant stress on our healthcare system. A national, uniform strategy for addressing low back pain, informed by research, is urgently required.”
Professor Ferreira, based at Sydney’s Kolling Institute, also mentioned, “Australia, a global pioneer in back pain research, should shift from a reactive stance on back pain management to a proactive one and set a global precedent for back pain prevention.”
Since 2017, the study has marked several significant moments in the history of back pain cases, with the number crossing the half a billion mark. In 2020 alone, around 619 million cases of back pain were reported. Occupational factors, smoking, and overweight status accounted for at least a third of the disability burden related to back pain.
Contrary to the widespread belief that low back pain predominantly affects working adults, the study reveals a higher incidence of this condition among older people, with females having a higher prevalence than males.
This extensive study offers the most updated and comprehensive data, including the inaugural global projections and the contribution of GBD risk factors to low back pain. Collaborative efforts of The University of Sydney, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine (healthdata.org), IHME’s international partners, and the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health (gmusc.com) have made this work possible.
Senior author Professor Lyn March from Sydney Musculoskeletal Health and the Kolling Institute said, “Most available data are sourced from high-income countries, making it challenging to apply these results to low to mid-income countries. There is an urgent need for more population-based back pain and musculoskeletal data from such countries.”
The study drew upon GBD data from 1990 to 2020 across more than 204 countries and territories to trace the pattern of back pain cases over time. It is the first study employed to model the future prevalence of back pain cases.
In light of these findings, Professor Anthony Woolf, co-chair of the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health, emphasized that health systems need to prepare for and manage the burgeoning burden of low back pain affecting people globally. The call for prioritization in addressing the escalating burden of musculoskeletal conditions is more urgent than ever.
Dr Alarcos Cieza, Unit Head, World Health Organization, Headquarters, Geneva, asserted, “The Ministries of Health must not ignore the high prevalence of musculoskeletal conditions, including low back pain. These conditions bring about substantial social and economic consequences, primarily due to the cost of care. Now is the time to learn effective strategies to address the high burden and to act.”
In 2018, unrelated to this study, experts aired their concerns in The Lancet and proposed changes to the global policy on preventing and managing low back pain, including emphasizing the importance of exercise and education. Despite these recommendations, little progress has been made. Many common treatments for low back pain, including certain surgeries and opioids, have been proven to have questionable effectiveness or to be ineffective.
Professor Ferreira points out the inconsistency in the management of back pain cases by health professionals and the pressing need for healthcare system adaptation. She states, “It may surprise some that current clinical guidelines for back pain treatment and management lack specific provisions for the elderly.”
Dr. Katie de Luca from CQUniversity, a co-author of the study, emphasized that if necessary measures are not implemented, low back pain can precede chronic conditions like diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and mental health disorders, invasive medical procedures, and significant disability.
Low back pain remains the most significant cause of disability burden worldwide, and the socio-economic impact of this condition, along with its physical and personal effects, poses a serious threat to healthy aging.
Reference: “Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021” by GBD 2021 Low Back Pain Collaborators, June 2023, The Lancet Rheumatology.
DOI: 10.1016/S2665-9913(23)00098-X
Table of Contents
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Low Back Pain Crisis
What does the study reveal about the future prevalence of low back pain?
The study predicts that around 843 million people globally will suffer from low back pain by 2050 due to factors such as population growth and aging demographics.
What are the primary causes of the increase in low back pain cases?
The increase in low back pain cases can be primarily attributed to the growing population and the aging of the global populace.
How does the study suggest managing the rising cases of low back pain?
The study suggests establishing a standardized, research-informed approach to manage low back pain on a national scale.
What were the significant findings of this study regarding the demographic groups most affected by low back pain?
Contrary to popular belief, the study found that low back pain is more prevalent in older people. Additionally, females were found to have a higher incidence of low back pain compared to males.
What are the current issues with the treatment of low back pain according to the study?
The study pointed out the lack of consistency in managing back pain cases and noted that many common treatments for low back pain, such as some surgeries and opioids, are either ineffective or of questionable effectiveness.
Why is there a particular concern about low back pain in older people?
The study highlighted that older people have more complex medical histories and are more likely to be prescribed strong medication, including opioids for back pain management, which can interfere with their existing medications and negatively impact their function and quality of life.
More about Low Back Pain Crisis
- Global Burden of Disease Study
- The Lancet Rheumatology
- Sydney Musculoskeletal Health
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
- Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health
- Kolling Institute
- World Health Organization
- CQUniversity
6 comments
Its interesting that the study shows women have more cases of back pain than men, i always thought it was the other way around…
This study is just what we need. My husband struggles with chronic back pain and the treatments ain’t helping much. I hope this helps to bring about real change!
Im always amazed by the stuff they can predict with these studies. 843 million by 2050, that’s a lot of sore backs. Hope the health system can keep up.
I’m suffering from back pain and it’s indeed a nightmare… hard to get effective treatment out there, time to change!
wow didn’t know back pain was such a big issue, thought it was just me gettin old lol. Looks like it’s a global thing eh?
this is scary stuff, more than 800 million people affected by 2050?? we gotta do something about this, now!