Visual representation of solar activities affecting conditions in Earth’s immediate space. Attribution: NASA
A radiocarbon surge that occurred 14,300 years ago has been identified by researchers as the outcome of the most significant solar storm ever known. Such an event, if it were to occur today, could severely impair modern technology and incur financial damages amounting to billions.
A consortium of international scientists identified an extraordinary elevation in radiocarbon concentrations dating back 14,300 years, through the study of ancient tree rings located in the French Alps.
This spike in radiocarbon can be attributed to an unparalleled solar storm, the most severe to have ever been documented.
Should an event of a similar magnitude happen in today’s technologically advanced society, the consequences would be disastrous. It could potentially obliterate telecommunication and satellite networks, induce sweeping blackouts in electricity grids, and inflict economic damages amounting to billions of dollars.
Scholars are alerting society to the imperative of comprehending these kinds of solar storms in order to safeguard our global energy and communication infrastructures for the foreseeable future.
Cross-section of a semi-fossilized tree situated in the Drouzet River. Attribution: Cécile Miramont
Table of Contents
New Findings and Their Implications
The joint scientific investigation, to be publicized today (October 9) in The Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, unveils novel perceptions regarding the Sun’s volatile behavior and its potential hazards to Earth.
Researchers hailing from Collège de France, CEREGE, IMBE, Aix-Marseille University, and the University of Leeds conducted measurements of radiocarbon in ancient trees, which were located in the eroded banks of the Drouzet River, near Gap, in the Southern French Alps.
The tree remains, identified as subfossils—specimens whose fossilization is incomplete—were dissected to isolate individual tree rings. Analytical scrutiny of these rings revealed a remarkable spike in radiocarbon levels specifically 14,300 years ago. Comparative analysis with beryllium measurements, a chemical element detected in Greenland’s ice cores, led the team to posit that this surge was initiated by an immense solar storm, discharging colossal volumes of high-energy particles into Earth’s atmosphere.
Expert Perspectives and Historical Frame of Reference
Edouard Bard, Professor of Climate and Ocean Evolution at Collège de France and CEREGE, and the chief author of this study, noted, “Radiocarbon is incessantly produced in Earth’s upper atmosphere through a sequence of reactions instigated by cosmic rays. Recent scientific discoveries have shown that extreme solar phenomena, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also contribute to brief but intense bursts of energetic particles. These are manifested as significant spikes in radiocarbon generation within a single year.”
The scholars underscore the devastating implications that similar mammoth solar storms could have on contemporary technological civilization. This could result in the elimination of telecommunication systems, satellite networks, and electrical grids, along with financial damages in the range of billions. A thorough understanding of such future risks is crucial for preparing and fortifying our communication and energy infrastructures against potential harm.
Tim Heaton, Professor of Applied Statistics at the School of Mathematics at the University of Leeds, elaborated, “Extreme solar storms could inflict substantial damage on Earth. These superstorms have the capacity to irreparably harm transformers in our electrical systems, leading to extensive and enduring power outages. They could also permanently disable the satellites that are integral for navigation and communication services, rendering them inoperative. Furthermore, there would be elevated radiation dangers for astronauts.”
A Brief History of Solar Storms
So far, nine such colossal solar storms—termed Miyake Events—have been identified as having occurred over the last 15,000 years. The most recently confirmed Miyake Events took place in 993 AD and 774 AD. However, the newly discovered solar storm from 14,300 years ago is unparalleled in scale, approximately double the size of the aforementioned two.
The precise nature of these Miyake Events remains largely elusive, as they have never been directly observed through instrumentation. This emphasizes our continued ignorance about the Sun’s activities and the perils it poses to terrestrial society. The causation of these severe solar storms, their frequency, and the possibility of predicting them remain unidentified.
Professor Bard added, “Direct instrumental monitoring of solar activity commenced only in the 17th century with sunspot counts. Presently, we also acquire comprehensive data through ground-based observatories, space probes, and satellites. Nevertheless, these short-term records are inadequate for a holistic comprehension of the Sun. Radiocarbon concentrations in tree rings, utilized in conjunction with beryllium found in polar ice cores, offer the most effective method for extending our understanding of solar activity into earlier periods.”
Radiocarbon and Reconstructive History
The largest solar storm that has been directly observed occurred in 1859, known as the Carrington Event. It wreaked havoc on Earth, annihilating telegraph equipment and producing an aurora so luminous that birds were tricked into believing it was dawn. However, the Miyake Events (inclusive of the newly unearthed 14,300-year-old storm) were an astounding order of magnitude larger.
Professor Heaton opined, “Radiocarbon is an exceptional tool for reconstructing Earth’s historical events. A precise understanding of our past is indispensable for making accurate future projections and for devising strategies to mitigate potential risks. There is still a vast knowledge gap to be filled. Every new discovery not only addresses current vital questions but also raises new ones.”
Cécile Miramont, Associate Professor of Paleoenvironments and Paleoclimates at IMBE, Aix-en-Provence University, said, “The discovery of such an assemblage of preserved trees was genuinely remarkable. Through dendrochronology, a technique that entails comparing the widths of individual tree rings across multiple trunks, we meticulously pieced together a more extended timeline. This yielded invaluable insights into historical environmental fluctuations and enabled us to measure radiocarbon levels across an undocumented span of solar activity.”
Reference: “A radiocarbon spike at 14,300 cal yr BP in subfossil trees provides the impulse response function of the global carbon cycle during the Late Glacial” by Bard E, Miramont C, Capano M, Guibal F, Marschal C, Rostek F, Tuna T, Fagault Y and Heaton TJ, 9 October 2023, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2022.0206
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about solar storm
What was the main discovery made by the scientists?
Scientists discovered a significant spike in radiocarbon levels 14,300 years ago, which they attributed to the largest known solar storm to date. The discovery was made through the analysis of ancient tree rings found in the French Alps.
How was the radiocarbon spike discovered?
An international team of researchers analyzed ancient tree rings in subfossil trees preserved within the eroded banks of the Drouzet River in the Southern French Alps. By examining these tree rings, they identified an unprecedented spike in radiocarbon levels occurring precisely 14,300 years ago.
What would be the impact of a similar solar storm occurring today?
A similar solar storm in contemporary times could be catastrophic for modern technological society. It could potentially disrupt telecommunications and satellite systems, cause widespread electricity grid blackouts, and incur billions of dollars in costs.
What are the broader implications of this research?
The study highlights the need for understanding the nature and impact of extreme solar events to protect global communications and energy infrastructure. Researchers are advocating for more comprehensive studies to assess future risks and build resilience against such solar events.
What are Miyake Events?
Miyake Events refer to extreme solar storms that have been identified through historical records. Nine such events have been identified over the last 15,000 years. The newly discovered 14,300-year-old solar storm is the largest among them.
How do scientists propose to protect modern infrastructure against such events?
While the article does not explicitly outline methods for protection, it emphasizes the importance of understanding the nature and frequency of these extreme solar events to build resilience into global communications and energy systems.
How does this research contribute to understanding the Sun’s behavior?
The research provides invaluable insights into the extreme behavior of the Sun and the risks it poses to Earth. It advocates for the utilization of radiocarbon levels in ancient tree rings and beryllium in polar ice cores as reliable methods for studying the Sun’s historical activity.
What are the sources of data for this study?
The main sources of data are the radiocarbon levels measured in ancient tree rings found in the Southern French Alps, and comparisons made with measurements of beryllium, a chemical element found in Greenland ice cores.
Who led this international research?
The research was led by Edouard Bard, Professor of Climate and Ocean Evolution at the Collège de France and CEREGE, and involved collaboration with scientists from multiple institutions including the Collège de France, CEREGE, IMBE, Aix-Marseille University, and the University of Leeds.
Where can one find the full study?
The full study will be published in The Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. The DOI for the paper is 10.1098/rsta.2022.0206.
More about solar storm
- Study in Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
- About Solar Storms
- What is Radiocarbon Analysis?
- Miyake Events: An Overview
- The Importance of Tree Rings in Climate Studies
- Impacts of Solar Storms on Modern Technology
- The Collège de France
- CEREGE Research Institute
- IMBE Research Overview
- Aix-Marseille University
- University of Leeds School of Mathematics
- Understanding the Global Carbon Cycle
- Radiocarbon and Historical Reconstructions
- The Carrington Event of 1859
- Dangers of Solar Storms to Earth’s Infrastructure
