The thawing of permafrost due to climate change could lead to the reactivation of ancient, dormant pathogens, posing a severe risk to the environment and humanity, says a recent worldwide study. These “prehistoric” microbes could possibly adapt and thrive in modern ecosystems, emphasizing the necessity for awareness and readiness for such menaces.
Computer modeling indicates that releasing just 1% of these latent pathogens might inflict considerable environmental harm and lead to widespread extinction of host organisms globally.
Melting ice and permafrost, a result of climate change, could awaken ‘prehistoric’ pathogens imprisoned within them for thousands of years. The revival of these microorganisms presents escalating threats to global ecosystems and potentially humanity.
Melting glaciers and thawing permafrost could resuscitate numerous forms of dormant pathogens. However, forecasting the potential damage these microbes could cause to contemporary ecosystems remains a complex task.
New Study Provides Insights into Ecological Threats
A pioneering global study led by Dr. Giovanni Strona of the European Commission Joint Research Centre, along with Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology, Corey Bradshaw from Flinders University in Australia, investigated the ecological threats. The study, published on July 27 in the open-access journal PLOS Computational Biology, sought to measure the threats arising from the re-emergence of these ancient, unpredictable microbes.
The researchers created simulated scenarios in which “prehistoric” digital pathogens invaded bacterial communities. They then compared the effects of these invasions on the diversity of host bacteria to scenarios where no such invasions occurred.
Findings: Survival and Influence of Pathogens
Interestingly, the researchers discovered in their simulations that these ancient invading pathogens frequently survived, evolved, and even became dominant in the modern environment in about 3% of cases.
Around 1% of these invasions led to unexpected outcomes. Some resulted in up to a third of the host species going extinct, while others increased diversity by up to 12% compared to simulations where no release took place.
Despite the seemingly minor risk associated with the 1% of released pathogens, given the enormous number of ancient microbes regularly introduced into contemporary environments, these epidemics pose a significant risk, the researchers suggest.
Expert Views
Study lead Dr. Giovanni Strona noted, “The scientific discourse around this topic has been largely speculative due to difficulties in gathering data and designing experiments to develop and test hypotheses. For the first time, we provide a comprehensive risk analysis related to these ‘prehistoric’ pathogens on modern ecological communities using sophisticated computer simulations.”
“Invading pathogens were found to frequently survive, evolve and sometimes become extremely persistent and dominant within the community, causing substantial losses or alterations in species diversity. Our findings indicate that threats previously only seen in science fiction could, in fact, pose serious risks as potent agents of ecological damage.”
Professor Corey Bradshaw from Flinders University commented that the discovery of the risk of invasion by unknown ‘black swan’ pathogens capable of causing irreversible harm is noteworthy.
“From this standpoint, our findings are alarming as they indicate a tangible risk arising from rare events where currently frozen pathogens lead to severe ecological impacts. In the most severe but entirely feasible scenario, the invasion of a single ancient pathogen reduced the host community’s size by 30% compared to our non-invasive controls.”
The Need for Proactive Measures
“We, as a society, must recognize the potential risk these ancient microbes could pose and prepare for any unexpected ramifications of their release into the modern world. The results suggest that the threat is not merely a fantasy that we can afford to overlook.”
To construct and test the simulated release of the digital pathogens into biological communities, the researchers utilized Avida, an artificial-life software platform developed by Michigan State University.
Reference: “Time-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities” by Giovanni Strona, Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Pedro Cardoso, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Frédéric Guillaume, Federica Manca, Ville Mustonen and Luis Zaman, 27 July 2023, PLOS Computational Biology.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011268
Table of Contents
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Ancient Pathogens from Thawing Permafrost
What is the main concern of the global study on permafrost melting?
The main concern is that thawing permafrost due to climate change could lead to the release and reactivation of ancient, dormant pathogens. These “prehistoric” microbes could possibly adapt and thrive in modern ecosystems, posing a severe risk to the environment and humanity.
What might happen if just 1% of these dormant pathogens were released?
Computer simulations suggest that releasing just 1% of these dormant pathogens might cause significant environmental harm and lead to widespread extinction of host organisms globally.
Who conducted this global study and where was it published?
The study was conducted by Dr. Giovanni Strona of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology Corey Bradshaw from Flinders University in Australia. The study was published in the open-access journal PLOS Computational Biology.
What was the finding of the simulated experiments in the study?
In the simulated experiments, it was found that the ancient invading pathogens frequently survived, evolved, and in some cases became dominant in the modern environment. Some pathogens resulted in up to a third of the host species going extinct, while others increased diversity by up to 12%.
How significant is the risk posed by the release of these ancient pathogens?
While the risk associated with the 1% of released pathogens may seem minor, given the enormous number of ancient microbes regularly introduced into contemporary environments, these epidemics pose a significant risk, according to the researchers.
What is the proposed solution or preventive measure against these threats?
The study emphasizes the need for society to understand the potential risk posed by these ancient microbes and prepare for any unexpected ramifications of their release into the modern world. The researchers suggest that this risk should not be overlooked.
More about Ancient Pathogens from Thawing Permafrost
- Climate Change and Its Impact
- Understanding Permafrost and Its Distribution
- PLOS Computational Biology Journal
- The Impact of Ancient Pathogens on Modern Ecosystems
- Avida Artificial-Life Software Platform
5 comments
Man this is seriously scary stuff! What’s next, zombies?? we need to step up our game with climate change, for real.
Fascinating read! The interplay between ecology and microbiology is an overlooked area of study, we should def pay more attention to it
Theres no denying climate change when you read stuff like this, we’re literally digging up diseases of the past… smh
so we not only have to deal with the present pandemic, but also possibly ancient ones? Please, let’s start taking better care of our planet.
wow! I had no idea permafrost melting could have such unexpected consequences. Ancient pathogens? It’s like a Sci-Fi movie plot…