Severe Variability in Strength: Hurricane Lee Crosses the Temperate Atlantic

Image of Hurricane Lee as obtained on September 12, 2023, through the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16).

Video Source: Astrosaxena
The powerful tempest experienced significant shifts in force as it neared the eastern coastline of the United States.

On the date of September 12, 2023, Hurricane Lee pursued its gradual west-northwesterly course over the Atlantic waters. The image of this formidable weather phenomenon was captured around 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (17:00 Coordinated Universal Time) by GOES-16, a satellite overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NASA contributes to the development and deployment of the GOES series.

At this juncture, the eye of the storm was situated approximately 500 miles (around 800 kilometers) to the south of Bermuda and progressed at a speed of 6 miles (about 9 kilometers) per hour. Wind speeds were registered at 115 miles (circa 185 kilometers) per hour, categorizing it as a level 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricane winds.

Historical Variability in Intensity

Throughout its transatlantic journey up to this point, the hurricane had been marked by considerable fluctuations in its power level. It underwent one of the most severe rapid intensifications witnessed in North Atlantic storms over the past four decades. In the 24-hour period ending at 2 a.m. Eastern Time (06:00 UTC) on September 8, the wind speeds of Hurricane Lee accelerated from 80 to 165 miles per hour (from 130 to approximately 265 kilometers per hour), elevating it to a category 5 status. Only Hurricanes Felix in 2007 and Wilma in 2005 experienced more dramatic intensifications over a similar time frame. Following this surge, moderate to intense wind shear affected the storm’s structure, reducing it to a category 2.

Map Showing Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperatures as of September 10, 2023.

Regaining Force

This wasn’t the final shift in momentum for Hurricane Lee. By September 10, the hurricane was once again gathering strength, facilitated by the diminishing wind shear and its movement over exceptionally warm oceanic areas. The above map displays sea surface temperatures from that day, sourced from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MUR SST) project. This endeavor by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory amalgamates sea surface temperature data from a range of NASA, NOAA, and international satellite instruments, in addition to ship and buoy reports.

Influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on Hurricane Potency

High ocean surface temperatures contribute to favorable conditions for hurricane strengthening. The year 2023 has been remarkable for elevated oceanic temperatures, thanks in part to years of incremental warming influenced by climate change and the presence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. Meteorological consensus supports the view that sea surface temperatures exceeding 27.8 degrees Celsius (82 degrees Fahrenheit) have the capability to sustain and amplify hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons. On the map, such temperatures are delineated in shades ranging from red to black.

Outlook for Hurricane Lee

Projected weather models suggest that atmospheric conditions over the eastern United States will steer Lee northwards. The storm is anticipated to grow in expanse but diminish in intensity as it traverses colder waters, recently agitated by Hurricanes Franklin and Idalia. It is expected to pass to the west of Bermuda—currently under a tropical storm watch—and could potentially make landfall in either the northeastern United States or Nova Scotia, albeit in a considerably weakened state.

Imagery courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory, utilizing GOES-16 images provided by NOAA and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), and incorporating data from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) project.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Hurricane Lee’s Intensity

More about Hurricane Lee’s Intensity

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
• Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)
• NASA Earth Observatory
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory
• Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MUR SST) Project
• Impact of Climate Change on Hurricanes
• El Niño and its Effects
• National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)
• Meteorological Consensus on Sea Surface Temperatures