Scientists Employ Computer Simulations to Unveil the True Cause Behind Societal Collapse in Early Farming Communities
A recent scientific study challenges the prevailing belief that climate fluctuations were the primary cause of boom-bust cycles in Neolithic farmer populations. Instead, computer simulations conducted by researchers indicate that periodic outbreaks of warfare better align with the observed data. The study sheds light on the cyclical dynamics experienced by early farming societies, wherein integration and disintegration occurred in tandem with population cycles and violent conflicts. These findings underscore the complexity of human societies, transcending their political and economic structures.
The study, led by complexity scientist Peter Turchin and his team at the Complexity Science Hub (CSH), represents a significant interdisciplinary effort to unravel a longstanding archaeological mystery. For years, researchers have sought to understand why Neolithic farmer communities underwent periods of rapid growth and decline, often resulting in the abandonment of entire regions.
While climate fluctuations have been widely proposed as the main driving force, empirical tests have not provided conclusive support for this hypothesis. The new study, recently published in Scientific Reports, introduces a fresh perspective.
“Our study demonstrates that the observed boom-bust patterns in the data can be attributed to periodic outbreaks of warfare rather than climate fluctuations,” argues Turchin.
To investigate these dynamics, the research team utilized computer simulations to compare two competing theories—climate change and social conflict—with historical data. This study marks the first instance of applying an agent-based model to such a scale for the Neolithic period, characterized by pre-state and pre-empire societies. By examining interactions at the village level across most of the European continent, the researchers aimed to capture the intricacies of this era.
Turchin initially harbored doubts about the applicability of mathematical models of social integration and disintegration to prehistoric societies like the European Neolithic. These small-scale farming communities exhibited limited political organization and lacked deep social inequalities. “I confess that until recently I thought that such societies were quite resilient and not susceptible to social disintegration and collapse,” admits Turchin.
However, mounting evidence suggested that even these “simple” Neolithic farming societies experienced collapses of substantial magnitude, resulting in the depopulation of vast regions. This prompted Turchin to reconsider his stance.
The study focuses on the period spanning from the advent of agriculture in Europe to the beginning of the Bronze Age, covering 7000 BCE to 3000 BCE. The computer simulations incorporated two crucial components: population change based on climate variability during the given timeframe and interactions encompassing population splits, migrations, and conflicts.
To validate the simulations, the team compared the patterns generated with real-world data, employing a database of radiocarbon dating. Since settlement data for this period and region are limited, the team relied on Carbon-14 data to make predictions in their model.
The study’s findings challenge the role of climate variation in explaining boom-bust dynamics during this time period. In contrast, simulations incorporating social conflicts yielded patterns consistent with those observed in radiocarbon dating.
The researchers acknowledge that their study does not definitively establish warfare as the sole mechanism responsible for population declines during this era. However, it provides compelling evidence that internal conflicts leading to population cycles are consistent with real-world data, offering an important perspective.
The study suggests a complex social landscape during the Neolithic period, aligned with the extensive archaeological research conducted across Europe. Contrary to the assumption of static conditions prevailing over millennia, this era appears to have been dynamic and marked by violence.
“Early farming societies underwent socio-political cyclical dynamics from integration to disintegration. These cycles often coincided with population cycles and significant outbreaks of violent conflict during periods of disintegration,” explains archaeologist Detlef Gronenborn, one of the coauthors of the study.
Furthermore, the study highlights that humans and their interactions, be they peaceful or aggressive, form a complex system irrespective of their political or economic organization. Even in the absence of a formal state, neighboring societies and their actions profoundly influence one another.
The study received funding from the Austrian Research Promotion Agency, the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation, and the German Research Foundation.
Reference: “Explaining population booms and busts in Mid-Holocene Europe” by Dániel Kondor, James S. Bennett, Detlef Gronenborn, Nicolas Antunes, Daniel Hoyer, and Peter Turchin, 8 June 2023, Scientific Reports.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-35920-z
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about societal collapse
What did the study conclude about the cause of small-scale societies’ collapse?
The study concluded that periodic outbreaks of warfare, rather than climate fluctuations, were the primary cause of small-scale societies’ collapse in early farming communities during the Neolithic period.
How did the researchers reach this conclusion?
The researchers used computer simulations and compared the results with historical data. They tested two rival theories, climate change and social conflict, and found that simulations incorporating social conflicts aligned better with the observed population dynamics compared to simulations based on climate variation.
What was the timeframe and scope of the study?
The study focused on the period from 7000 BCE to 3000 BCE, spanning from the advent of agriculture in Europe to the beginning of the Bronze Age. It covered most of the European continent and examined interactions at the village level.
Did the study consider other factors contributing to population declines?
While the study emphasized warfare as a significant factor, it acknowledged the possibility of other mechanisms contributing to population declines during the Neolithic period. However, the research demonstrated that internal conflicts producing population cycles were consistent with real-world data.
What implications does the study have for understanding early farming societies?
The study challenges the notion of resilience in small-scale farming communities and highlights the presence of complex social dynamics and violence during the Neolithic period. It suggests that interactions, both peaceful and violent, shape complex systems and influence societies, regardless of their political or economic organization.
More about societal collapse
- Scientific Reports: Explaining population booms and busts in Mid-Holocene Europe
- Complexity Science Hub
- Leibniz Centre for Archaeology
5 comments
gr8 study but man some of those long words gave me a headache like socio-political cyclical dynamics what even is that
omg I never knew that early farmer communities could go thru boom-bust cycles and collapses makes u think twice abt history like why didnt they teach us this in school
it’s fascinating how even without states or nobles, these ancient societies still had their share of drama and violence humans will be humans no matter what time period it is
finally some solid research that challenges the climate change theory maybe now people will start considerin other factors in societal collapse gotta love those computer simulations
wow this study is amazin it shows that climate aint the real problem it’s warfare so interesting to see how humans and their interactions can mess up everything