The Lethal Legacy of Climate Change: How Elevated Temperatures Fueled Ancient Conflict
Fresh research establishes a link between historical shifts in climate within the Andes region and a surge in violence, underscoring the susceptibility of inhabitants in marginalized environments to contemporary and forthcoming climate repercussions.
An archaeological investigation conducted by UC Davis proposes the possibility of competition arising from scarcity of resources.
Modern climate fluctuations have presented challenges to human society, including wildfires and shortened growth seasons for essential crops, which have triggered economic ramifications. Numerous studies have not only foreseen but also documented a surge in interpersonal disputes and homicides as temperatures rise.
Proof of violence during periods of climatic alteration is evident in history. Researchers from the University of California, Davis, assert that a trend of heightened violence emerged during climatic shifts in the south-central Andes between A.D. 470 and 1500. Within this timeframe, encompassing the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (approximately A.D. 900-1250), temperatures increased, droughts prevailed, and the initial Andean states collapsed.
The correlation between climate fluctuations and the potential for competition over scarce resources in the south-central Andes likely catalyzed violence among the highland populations during that era, as per the findings of a new research paper. The study analyzed instances of cranial injuries in the population residing in the region at that time, a widely-used indicator of interpersonal violence among archaeologists.
Thomas J. Snyder, the lead author of the study and a doctoral candidate in the Department of Anthropology’s Evolutionary Wing, stated, “We observed that reduced precipitation correlates with higher rates of cranial trauma. This observation indicates that climate change, in the form of decreased precipitation, had a significant impact on the rates of interpersonal violence in the region.”
Published on June 5 in Quaternary Research by Cambridge University Press, the research’s co-author is Randall Haas, formerly of UC Davis’s same laboratory and currently a professor at Wayne State University.
Lack of violence in coastal and mid-elevation regions
Comparable outcomes were not replicated in coastal and mid-elevation regions, implying that nonviolent resolutions were chosen in response to climate change, or these areas were minimally affected by it. Additionally, these regions displayed more agricultural and economic diversity, potentially mitigating the consequences of climate shifts. In contrast, the highlands faced resource scarcity due to drought, which appears to be a plausible explanation for the upsurge in violence, according to researchers.
Snyder emphasized the significance of examining the historical relationship between human society and the environment when assessing the potential repercussions of present-day climate challenges.
“Our findings reinforce the notion that individuals residing in already precarious environments are most likely to bear the brunt of climate change,” he asserted. “Archaeological investigations enable us to anticipate the most effective strategies for addressing the difficulties encountered by those in vulnerable positions amidst a swiftly changing climate.”
UC Davis researchers discerned instances of violence in the early Andean years by analyzing existing data encompassing nearly 3,000 skeletal fractures of human remains discovered at 58 archaeological sites. They compared this data to the contemporaneous ice accumulation at the Quelccaya glacier, located in what is now Peru, Chile, and Bolivia. Coinciding with this, widespread abandonment of Wari and Tiwanaku sites within the region suggested sociopolitical disintegration following the onset of the long-lasting global climate changes.
Given the extreme climatic variability, remarkable archaeological preservation, and comprehensive records available in the Andean region, this study offers a valuable opportunity to scrutinize human responses to climate change. The research revealed that, on average, every 10-centimeter decrease in annual ice accumulation at the Quelccaya glacier corresponded to more than a twofold increase in the likelihood of interpersonal violence.
Reference: “Climate change intensified violence in the south-central Andean highlands from 1.5 to 0.5 ka” by Thomas J. Snyder and Randall Haas, June 5, 2023, Quaternary Research.
DOI: 10.1017/qua.2023.23
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about climatic conflict
What does the research reveal about climate change in the Andes and its connection to violence?
The research suggests that historical climate change in the Andes region contributed to increased violence due to competition for limited resources. Rising temperatures and drought during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (A.D. 900-1250) likely led to conflicts among highland populations.
How does modern climate change relate to the study’s findings?
Modern climate change, with its impacts like wildfires and reduced crop growing seasons, has shown parallels to historical patterns. Numerous studies have documented a rise in interpersonal conflicts and homicides as temperatures increase, reinforcing the historical link between climate shifts and violence.
Why was violence more pronounced in the south-central Andes compared to coastal and mid-elevation regions?
The lack of violence in coastal and mid-elevation regions suggests nonviolent solutions or minimal impact. Diverse agriculture and economic conditions might have buffered these areas against climate change. In contrast, the highlands faced resource scarcity from drought, contributing to the violence observed.
How does the study contribute to understanding the effects of climate change on societies?
The research underscores the vulnerability of marginalized environments to climate change impacts. By analyzing historical interactions between humans and their environment, the study offers insights into how present and future climate challenges could affect societies in precarious positions.
What method did the researchers use to study historical violence?
Researchers examined nearly 3,000 skeletal fractures from 58 archaeological sites in the Andes, comparing them to ice accumulation at the Quelccaya glacier. This approach revealed a significant correlation between reduced ice accumulation and increased likelihood of interpersonal violence.
How can this research inform strategies to address climate change challenges?
The study highlights the importance of proactive measures for populations in vulnerable environments. Archaeological insights into past responses to climate shifts can guide effective approaches to tackle the difficulties faced by communities amidst a changing climate.
More about climatic conflict
- UC Davis Study on Climate Change and Violence
- Quaternary Research Journal
- Medieval Climatic Anomaly
- Andean Archaeology and Climate Change
- Effects of Climate Change on Conflict
