According to a recent study, the Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy has become weaker and is now more likely to erupt. This supervolcano, which last erupted in 1538, has been experiencing restlessness for over 70 years, with significant periods of unrest and numerous minor earthquakes. Researchers used a unique model of volcano fracturing to analyze earthquake patterns and ground uplift, leading them to conclude that certain parts of the volcano are nearing their breaking point. However, while an eruption is now more probable, further research is required to make accurate predictions.
The Campi Flegrei supervolcano in southern Italy has been identified as having weakened, raising the chances of an eruption. A groundbreaking study conducted by scientists from UCL (University College London) and Italy’s National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) utilized a novel model to interpret seismic activity and ground movements. Their findings indicate that specific regions within the volcano are currently under immense strain. Nevertheless, the occurrence of an eruption cannot be guaranteed, necessitating additional research to enhance prediction accuracy.
Researchers at UCL and the INGV have discovered that the Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy has grown weaker, significantly increasing the likelihood of an eruption. The volcano, which most recently erupted in 1538, has exhibited restlessness for more than seven decades, marked by periods of heightened activity and numerous minor earthquakes. By utilizing an innovative model that examines volcano fracturing, the study determined that certain parts of the volcano have reached a critical breaking point.
Campi Flegrei, also known as the Phlegraean Fields, is a large volcanic area situated west of Naples, Italy. It possesses the characteristics of a supervolcano due to its history of eruptions and the presence of a large caldera system. The caldera, formed approximately 39,000 years ago, was the site of one of Europe’s most massive eruptions, resulting in a volcanic winter that had far-reaching effects on life worldwide.
Lead author Professor Christopher Kilburn from UCL Earth Sciences remarked, “Our study confirms that Campi Flegrei is approaching a state of rupture. However, this does not guarantee an immediate eruption, as the magma must still reach the surface at the right location.” The team applied their rock fracturing model in real-time for the first time, accurately predicting the volcano’s behavior since its initial use in 2017. Professor Kilburn added, “We will need to revise our estimation methods to assess the likelihood of new pathways opening for magma or gas to reach the surface. This study represents a significant advancement in our pursuit of better eruption forecasts worldwide.”
Dr. Nicola Alessandro Pino from the Vesuvius Observatory, representing the INGV, noted, “Our results indicate that certain sections of the volcano have weakened. Consequently, it could rupture, even with smaller stresses compared to the previous crisis 40 years ago.”
Supervolcanoes, capable of ejecting over 1,000 cubic kilometers of material during an eruption, pose a severe threat with the potential to cause global climatic changes and extensive devastation.
Campi Flegrei, which is the closest active volcano to London, does not resemble a typical volcano, as it appears as a gentle depression spanning 12-14 km (7.5-8.5 miles) and is known as a caldera. This unique characteristic has allowed 360,000 individuals to settle on its surface.
Over the past decade, the ground beneath Pozzuoli has been gradually rising at a rate of approximately 10 cm (4 in) per year. This period has also witnessed the occurrence of persistent small earthquakes, a phenomenon not observed since the mid-
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about volcano eruption
What is the Campi Flegrei supervolcano?
The Campi Flegrei supervolcano is a large volcanic area located in southern Italy, west of Naples. It is known for its history of eruptions and the presence of a large caldera system.
When did the Campi Flegrei volcano last erupt?
The Campi Flegrei volcano last erupted in 1538.
How long has the Campi Flegrei volcano been restless?
The Campi Flegrei volcano has been restless for over 70 years, experiencing periods of unrest and numerous minor earthquakes during this time.
What does the recent research on Campi Flegrei suggest?
Recent research suggests that the Campi Flegrei supervolcano has become weaker and is more likely to erupt. The study used a unique model to analyze earthquake patterns and ground uplift, concluding that certain parts of the volcano have reached a critical breaking point.
Is an eruption of the Campi Flegrei supervolcano guaranteed?
No, an eruption is not guaranteed. While the volcano shows signs of increased activity and weakening, further research is necessary to make accurate predictions.
More about volcano eruption
- Campi Flegrei – Wikipedia
- Campi Flegrei: a restless volcano – UCL Earth Sciences
- Research paper: Potential for rupture before eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy
