Pangea Ultima: The Impending Supercontinent That Poses a Threat to Mammalian Survival

This illustration illustrates the average temperature during the warmest month (in degrees Celsius) for Earth and the projected supercontinent, Pangea Ultima, which is anticipated to form 250 million years in the future. This event could spell danger for nearly all mammals. Credit: University of Bristol

A recent study, featured in Nature Geoscience, has offered a sobering glimpse into Earth’s distant future, approximately 250 million years from now. It envisions the emergence of a supercontinent named Pangea Ultima (also referred to as Pangea Proxima), an event that carries dire implications for life on our planet, particularly for mammals. This research, led by a team of international scientists from the University of Bristol, employs advanced supercomputer climate models to forecast extreme temperatures and the resulting uninhabitable conditions that could plague this new supercontinent. Crucially, it sheds light on the potential consequences of natural processes on Earth’s climate, distinct from anthropogenic climate change.

The projections indicate that, in the far-off future, Earth’s temperatures will soar due to two primary factors: heightened volcanism resulting from the amalgamation of all continents and an aging Sun emitting more energy and heat. Volcanoes, typically moderating temperatures by releasing carbon dioxide and contributing to the planet’s natural warming, may become excessive, leading to dramatic temperature spikes. Furthermore, akin to mammals, our Sun evolves with age, growing in size and outputting more heat and energy.

Dr. Alexander Farnsworth, a Senior Research Associate at the University of Bristol and the study’s lead author, succinctly articulates the impending predicament: “The newly emerged supercontinent would effectively create a triple whammy, comprising the continentality effect, a hotter sun, and elevated CO2 levels in the atmosphere, resulting in escalating heat across much of the planet. The consequence would be a predominantly hostile environment bereft of sustenance and water sources for mammals. Widespread temperatures ranging from 40 to 50 degrees Celsius, and even more extreme daily fluctuations, coupled with high humidity levels, would ultimately seal our fate. Humans, along with numerous other species, would succumb due to their inability to dissipate this excess heat through perspiration, a critical cooling mechanism.”

The resilience of mammals, including humans, has enabled their survival on Earth for eons, with the capacity to adapt to extreme climatic conditions. However, while evolution has allowed mammals to endure in frigid climates, it has not granted them the ability to thrive in scorching heat. Consequently, as Earth’s temperatures escalate, the likelihood of mammals surviving under these newfound conditions diminishes.

Dr. Farnsworth paints a grim picture of the distant future: “The outlook appears exceedingly bleak. Carbon dioxide levels could reach double the current concentrations. With the Sun poised to emit approximately 2.5% more radiation, and the supercontinent primarily situated in the hot, humid tropics, much of the planet could face temperatures ranging from 40 to 70 degrees Celsius. This research also underscores that a world residing within the so-called ‘habitable zone’ of a solar system may not be hospitable for humans, depending on whether continents are dispersed, as they are today, or coalesced into a single supercontinent.”

While Pangea Ultima is poised to dominate Earth’s landscape 250 million years hence, it will not be the inaugural supercontinent to grace our planet. Scientists postulate the existence of ten supercontinents throughout Earth’s 4.5 billion-year history, with Pangea being the most renowned among them. The presence of these supercontinents is attributed to plate tectonics, where the Earth’s surface comprises seven major and eight minor plates that collide and subduct beneath each other over vast geological epochs.

What remains uncertain is how Pangea Ultima will reshape Earth’s habitability and what novel insights about supercontinents await discovery in the years and decades to come. Only the passage of time will reveal the answers, underscoring the inexhaustible pursuit of science.

Adapted from an article originally published on Universe Today.

Reference: “Climate extremes likely to drive land mammal extinction during next supercontinent assembly” by Alexander Farnsworth, Y. T. Eunice Lo, Paul J. Valdes, Jonathan R. Buzan, Benjamin J. W. Mills, Andrew S. Merdith, Christopher R. Scotese and Hannah R. Wakeford, 25 September 2023, Nature Geoscience.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01259-3

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More about Supercontinent’s Impact on Mammalian Survival

• Nature Geoscience Study – The original research article titled “Climate extremes likely to drive land mammal extinction during next supercontinent assembly” published in Nature Geoscience.
• University of Bristol – The University of Bristol, where the research on Pangea Ultima and its climate impact was conducted.
• Plate Tectonics – Information on plate tectonics, the geological process responsible for the formation and movement of continents and supercontinents.
• Pangea – An overview of the supercontinent Pangea, one of Earth’s past supercontinents, for historical context.