El Niño’s alterations to worldwide precipitation trends could exacerbate issues related to food availability, with areas like southern Africa at heightened risk. Analytical work by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is instrumental in gauging the potential scale of these impacts and informing humanitarian interventions.
Changes in rainfall distribution are forecasted to result in millions of individuals lacking stable access to food supplies in the latter part of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.
The current El Niño episode is causing changes in global precipitation, with variable implications for agricultural output. Excessive rainfall in certain regions and insufficient rainfall in others are expected to influence crop productivity, potentially affecting 110 million people who may require food aid, according to researchers associated with FEWS NET.
El Niño is a climatic event distinguished by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This periodic warming acts like an obstacle in a waterway, altering atmospheric flows that in turn modify rainfall distribution. Increased precipitation is predicted in the southern United States and the Horn of Africa, whereas decreased rainfall is anticipated in southern Africa, Latin America, Australia, and some areas of Southeast Asia.
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Anticipated Consequences of the Ongoing El Niño Episode
The current El Niño phenomenon, expected to intensify through late 2023 before waning by mid-2024, is likely to worsen food scarcity in specific regions. A map created by FEWS NET collaborators illustrates the anticipated effects of El Niño on critical agricultural commodities such as wheat, maize, rice, soybean, and sorghum. This map was generated based on an evaluation of historical crop and climate data spanning from 1961 to 2020, contributed by experts from various institutions including NASA Harvest, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, NOAA, the University of Maryland, and the University of California Santa Barbara’s Climate Hazards Center.
Weston Anderson, an assistant research scientist on the FEWS NET team, stated, “El Niño events are believed to impact at least a quarter of the world’s croplands. While there are uncertainties concerning how crop yields will be affected this year, we understand the general probabilities.”
Anderson and his colleagues’ assessment of past crop performances suggests that El Niño is prone to cause subpar maize yields in southern Africa and Central America due to drought conditions. Wheat yields in Australia and rice yields in Southeast Asia are generally also negatively affected. Conversely, global soybean yields often improve during El Niño events. Above-average rainfall is foreseen to help recover from prolonged droughts in a large portion of the Horn of Africa and Afghanistan.
Importance of FEWS NET Analysis and Geographical Focus
Analysts at FEWS NET develop models to understand how regional variations in rainfall could influence crop productivity and consequently, food security. This data is vital for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in assessing the needs for food assistance and humanitarian aid, particularly in regions where subsistence agriculture is common.
In certain nations in southern Africa, a recent release by FEWS NET highlighted them as areas of concern. El Niño’s adverse effects are generally most pronounced in the southeastern regions of Africa, including Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, southern and central Mozambique, and northeastern South Africa. During moderate to strong El Niño years, these areas have typically experienced below-average rainfall and above-average daytime temperatures during crucial growing seasons.
Maize, which constitutes nearly 70% of the region’s cereal production, is especially vulnerable. In previous El Niño years, maize output in Zimbabwe and South Africa experienced average shortfalls ranging from 10 to 15% compared to anticipated yields. Some years witnessed deficits exceeding 50%, resulting in significant regional increases in food prices. In southern Madagascar, the 2023 maize harvests have already been adversely affected by cyclonic events and erratic rainfall patterns.
Maps created by the NASA Earth Observatory utilized data from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network concerning crop yield impacts, which are based on FAOSTAT country-level crop yields, and projected soil moisture conditions in southern Africa provided by the FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS).
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about El Niño and food security
What is El Niño and how does it impact global food security?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It disrupts atmospheric circulation, leading to shifting rainfall patterns across the globe. These changes can have significant consequences for food production and food security.
What are the expected consequences of the current El Niño event on food production?
The ongoing El Niño is predicted to bring both excessive and insufficient rainfall to different regions. This variability is likely to affect crop yields, potentially leaving 110 million people in need of food assistance. Specific impacts include poor maize yields in southern Africa and Central America due to drought, reduced wheat and rice yields in Australia and Southeast Asia, and improved global soybean yields.
How does FEWS NET’s analysis contribute to understanding these impacts?
FEWS NET conducts crucial analyses to model how regional variations in rainfall may influence crop productivity and, subsequently, food security. This data is used by organizations like the U.S. Agency for International
More about El Niño and food security
- Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)
- U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)
- NASA Earth Observatory
- FAOSTAT Country-Level Crop Yields
- NOAA’s El Niño Portal
- University of Maryland’s Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
- University of California Santa Barbara’s Climate Hazards Center
- NASA Harvest
- NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
- [El Niño and its Global Impact](https://www
