Recent research suggests that the global occurrence of flash droughts will rise due to climate change, posing significant challenges for North America and Europe. This concerning trend is projected to heighten the socioeconomic strains associated with food production, leading to increased crop losses, escalated prices, and even potential social unrest.
Researchers at the University of Oklahoma are currently studying the rapid onset of unexpected drought, known as flash drought, and its profound impact on agricultural and ecological systems. These sudden drought events extend their ramifications far beyond their immediate vicinity. The objective of the study is to assess how the escalating global temperatures may affect the frequency of flash droughts and the associated risks to global crop fields.
Lead author Jordan Christian, a postdoctoral researcher, published the study in the Nature Communications Earth and Environment journal. Christian stated, “In this study, we quantified projected changes in flash drought frequency and the risk it poses to croplands using simulations from global climate models. Our findings indicate a global increase in the occurrence of flash droughts across all scenarios, with the most significant rises observed in scenarios characterized by higher radiative forcing and increased fossil fuel consumption.”
Radiative forcing refers to the imbalance of radiation, where more radiation enters the Earth’s atmosphere than escapes it. Activities such as burning fossil fuels contribute significantly to this radiation imbalance and subsequent climate warming. As the climate continues to change, the likelihood of severe weather events such as storms, flash flooding, and flash droughts is expected to increase.
Christian further added, “The risk of flash drought over croplands is projected to escalate worldwide, with the most substantial increases expected in North America and Europe. According to CMIP6 models, the annual risk of flash droughts over croplands in North America is projected to increase 1.5 times by 2100, from a 32% risk in 2015 to 49% in 2100, based on a 2015 baseline. In the most extreme emissions scenario, Europe is anticipated to experience the highest increase, with an annual risk rising from 32% to 53%, representing a 1.7 times increase.”
To visualize the data, the study includes a figure depicting the impact of a flash drought on an Oklahoma grassland. The photos on the top row illustrate the effects of the flash drought on the ecosystem, contrasting with the images of the same area without flash drought impacts displayed in the bottom row.
Jeffrey Basara, an associate professor in the School of Meteorology, College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences, and the School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences in the Gallogly College of Engineering, served as Christian’s faculty advisor and co-author of the study. Basara, who also heads OU’s Climate, Hydrology, Ecosystems, and Weather research group and serves as the executive associate director of the hydrology and water security program, emphasized the escalating risks faced by agricultural producers worldwide due to water scarcity resulting from rapid drought development. Consequently, the socioeconomic pressures linked to food production, including elevated prices and social unrest, will intensify whenever crop losses occur as a consequence of flash drought.
This study builds upon the team’s ongoing efforts to enhance the identification and prediction of flash drought since 2017, with multiple papers published in esteemed journals such as the Journal of Hydrometeorology, Environmental Research Letters, and Nature Communications.
Reference: “Global projections of flash drought show increased risk in a warming climate” by Jordan I. Christian, Elinor R. Martin, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Jason A. Otkin, Lauren E. L. Lowman, Eric D. Hunt, Vimal Mishra, and Xiangming Xiao, 25 May 2023
Table of Contents
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about flash droughts
What are flash droughts?
Flash droughts refer to the swift onset of unexpected drought conditions that can have a severe impact on agricultural and ecological systems. Unlike traditional droughts that develop slowly over time, flash droughts occur suddenly and can cause significant damage to crops and ecosystems.
How does climate change contribute to the increase in flash droughts?
Climate change plays a significant role in the increase of flash droughts. The rising global temperatures associated with climate change lead to increased evaporation and water loss from the soil. This, in turn, creates drier conditions and contributes to the occurrence of flash droughts.
Which regions are most affected by flash droughts?
According to recent research, flash droughts have particularly pronounced impacts on North America and Europe. These regions are projected to experience a higher frequency of flash droughts as a result of climate change, posing significant challenges to agriculture and food production.
What are the consequences of flash droughts on agriculture?
Flash droughts can have detrimental effects on agriculture, leading to increased crop losses. This, in turn, can result in higher food prices and socioeconomic pressures. The impacts can extend beyond the immediate area of the drought, affecting global food production and potentially leading to social unrest.
How can we mitigate the risks of flash droughts?
Mitigating the risks of flash droughts involves addressing climate change on a global scale. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promote sustainable agricultural practices, and improve water management systems can all contribute to minimizing the occurrence and impacts of flash droughts. Adaptation strategies, such as implementing drought-resistant crop varieties and efficient irrigation techniques, can also help in managing the risks associated with flash droughts.
More about flash droughts
- Nature Communications Earth and Environment journal
- University of Oklahoma
- CMIP6 models
- Journal of Hydrometeorology
- Environmental Research Letters
- Nature Communications
5 comments
This research is super important! It shows how climate change is gonna make flash droughts worse. Crop loss, higher prices, and unrest, oh my! We need to take action now!
Wow, flash droughts on the rise? Not good news at all. Those sudden droughts mess everything up – crops, ecosystems, you name it. Gotta figure out how to deal with this, and fast!
Ugh, more flash droughts mean more trouble for food production. It’s gonna be harder to grow stuff, prices gonna skyrocket, and people gonna get real mad. We gotta find solutions before it’s too late.
Props to the scientists at OU for studying flash droughts. Understanding how global warming affects ’em is crucial. Let’s hope their work helps us find ways to predict and manage these intense drought events.
Flash droughts are no joke! Climate change is makin’ ’em worse, and that ain’t good for anyone. We gotta reduce emissions, switch to clean energy, and protect our precious crops and ecosystems. Time to take action!