An international consortium of scientists has issued a dire prediction, forecasting that the majority of the Earth’s near-surface permafrost could vanish by the year 2100. This sobering conclusion has been drawn by comparing contemporary climate trends with those of our planet three million years in the past. The study points to a grim scenario where near-surface permafrost, crucial to various facets of our existence, may persist only in select areas, such as the eastern Siberian uplands, the Canadian High Arctic Archipelago, and the northernmost reaches of Greenland. This profound transformation is poised to exert far-reaching impacts on human livelihoods, critical infrastructure, the global carbon cycle, and intricate water systems.
In accordance with the findings of a group of international scientists, it is anticipated that the majority of the Earth’s near-surface permafrost could disappear by the year 2100. This projection has been deduced through an extensive analysis of prevailing climate patterns juxtaposed with those that prevailed three million years ago.
These esteemed experts have determined that near-surface permafrost could diminish by a staggering 93% when contrasted with levels observed during the preindustrial era, spanning from 1850 to 1900. This ominous projection is grounded in the most extreme warming scenario outlined in the recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
By the year 2100, the near-surface permafrost, residing within the uppermost 10 to 13 feet of the soil stratum, may persist solely in specific regions such as the eastern Siberian uplands, the Canadian High Arctic Archipelago, and the northernmost expanses of Greenland—a scenario reminiscent of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period.
A Multinational Endeavor
The research, published recently in the esteemed journal “Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,” was spearheaded by Donglin Guo of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology. Collaborating in this monumental effort were scientists hailing from the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Canada, The Netherlands, France, and Sweden.
“Our study signals a substantial reduction in near-surface permafrost extent in the geological past, under climate conditions akin to those we anticipate if global warming persists unabated,” articulate the authors.
Among the co-authors stands Professor emeritus Vladimir Romanovsky of the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, renowned for his pioneering work in permafrost research.
“The loss of such a significant portion of near-surface permafrost over the next 77 years will have far-reaching implications for human existence and the infrastructure we rely upon, the intricate global carbon cycle, and surface and subsurface hydrology,” warns Romanovsky. “This research serves as yet another ominous reminder of the ongoing transformations in Earth’s climate.”
A Comparative Examination with the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period
Simulations of the climate during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period bear striking resemblance to climate projections for the conclusion of this century under the fossil-fueled development pathway outlined in the latest IPCC report. This pathway represents the bleakest among five scenarios delineated for the future of our society.
Simulations pertaining to the mid-Pliocene Warm Period and projections regarding permafrost extent in 2100 are exclusively focused on near-surface permafrost, which is notably susceptible to the effects of climate warming when juxtaposed with its deeper counterparts.
According to ten computer models, Earth stands to lose approximately 77% of its near-surface permafrost by 2100, in comparison to the period from 1995 to 2014, under the IPCC’s fossil-fueled development scenario, provided that surface air temperatures escalate by a daunting 13.5 degrees Fahrenheit.
Scientific Methodology and Revelations
The authors of this study opted to draw parallels between Earth’s anticipated future and the conditions that prevailed during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, which transpired some three million years ago, as it represents the most recent era of sustained global warmth in the geological annals of our planet. Owing to limited direct information regarding Northern Hemisphere permafrost during this period, the scientists resorted to scrutinizing auxiliary indicators such as vegetation composition and distinctive soil characteristics to reconstruct records of surface air temperatures. Drawing from this proxy evidence, they extrapolated the extent of permafrost during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period.
Through advanced computer modeling, they established that the global annual mean surface temperature during that epoch was 5 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the pre-industrial era. In Arctic regions, the disparity was even more striking, with temperatures nearly 13 degrees higher.
The absence of permafrost during this period is further substantiated by marine fossil sediment records in northwestern Alaska, as highlighted in the study.
The authors underscore the convergence of simulated winter and summer temperatures, along with precipitation patterns, which exert substantial influence on permafrost stability. These variables align notably closely between the mid-Pliocene era and the anticipated conditions of 2100 and 2200.
The authors of this comprehensive investigation conclude that the prospects for near-surface permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere appear bleak. The continued trajectory of climate warming and the resultant degradation of near-surface permafrost may precipitate alterations in environmental conditions heretofore unencountered by humanity, underscoring the imperative to raise awareness regarding the significance of addressing permafrost degradation.
Reference: “Highly restricted near‐surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period” by Donglin Guo, Huijun Wang, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, Alan M. Haywood, Nick Pepin, Ulrich Salzmann, Jianqi Sun, Qing Yan, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Deepak Chandan, Anna S. von der Heydt, Camille Contoux, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Stephen J. Hunter and Youichi Kamae, 28 August 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2301954120
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Permafrost Decline
What is the main finding of the study regarding permafrost?
The main finding of the study indicates that by 2100, a significant portion of Earth’s near-surface permafrost, up to 93%, could vanish compared to levels observed in the preindustrial period.
How did the scientists arrive at this conclusion?
The scientists arrived at this conclusion by comparing current climate patterns with those from the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, which occurred approximately three million years ago. They used various indicators such as vegetation composition, soil characteristics, and marine fossil sediment records to reconstruct past permafrost conditions.
What regions are expected to retain near-surface permafrost by 2100?
By 2100, near-surface permafrost may persist primarily in specific regions, including the eastern Siberian uplands, the Canadian High Arctic Archipelago, and the northernmost parts of Greenland.
What are the potential consequences of such extensive permafrost loss?
The extensive loss of near-surface permafrost by 2100 could have profound impacts on human livelihoods, critical infrastructure, the global carbon cycle, and surface and subsurface hydrology. It represents a significant threat in the context of climate change.
How does this study relate to climate change projections?
This study draws parallels between the mid-Pliocene Warm Period’s climate, which was three million years ago, and the anticipated climate conditions for 2100. This comparison provides valuable insights into the potential consequences of continued climate warming.
Who conducted this research, and which countries were involved?
The research was led by Donglin Guo of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology. It involved collaboration among scientists from the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Canada, The Netherlands, France, and Sweden.
What can be done to address the permafrost degradation issue highlighted in the study?
Addressing permafrost degradation requires concerted efforts to mitigate climate change. This includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions, transitioning to sustainable energy sources, and implementing adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of permafrost loss on human societies and ecosystems.
More about Permafrost Decline
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences – Study Publication: Link to the published study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): The official website of the IPCC, which provides climate change reports and information on climate projections.
- University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute: The institute where Professor emeritus Vladimir Romanovsky, one of the co-authors of the study, is affiliated.
- Chinese Academy of Sciences: The institution where Donglin Guo, the lead researcher, is associated.
- Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology: The university affiliated with Donglin Guo’s research work.
4 comments
oh no, so much permafrost vanishing, dis is seriousss! IPCC says we must act NOW!
Study compared now & 3mil yrs ago, scary how fast things changin’, we need climate action!
if 93% permafrost goes, we’re doomed, humans, infrastructure, climate, all affected, gotta take it seriously!
this study tells us earth’s in big trouble, permafrost goin’ bye-bye & that’s bad for all, we gotta do sumthin’!