Intriguing Connection Found: Earthquakes and Cosmic Radiation Exhibit Statistical Correlation

Scientists have made an intriguing discovery that reveals a strong statistical correlation between seismic activity and changes in cosmic radiation, potentially opening new possibilities for earthquake prediction. However, while this correlation provides valuable insights, predicting specific earthquake locations remains uncertain. Moreover, the findings have sparked questions about the influence of enigmatic phenomena such as dark matter streams.

The relationship between global seismic activity and fluctuations in cosmic radiation intensity has been established through meticulous statistical analyses. This correlation holds promise for earthquake prediction, yet its periodic nature defies clear physical interpretation.

The impact of powerful earthquakes often leads to significant human casualties and substantial material damage. Being able to anticipate the timing and location of such catastrophic events could drastically mitigate their consequences. The CREDO project, initiated in 2016 by the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IFJ PAN) in Cracow, aims to validate the previously proposed hypothesis that changes in cosmic radiation can potentially serve as an indicator of impending earthquakes. Statistical examinations have confirmed the existence of a correlation between these two phenomena, but the peculiar characteristics it exhibits have surpassed expectations.

The CREDO project constitutes an international collaborative effort known as the Cosmic Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory. It serves as a virtual observatory for cosmic rays, open to all, collecting and analyzing data from various sources, including sophisticated scientific detectors and even smartphone CMOS sensors (by installing the free CREDO Detector app). One of the project’s primary objectives is to monitor global variations in secondary cosmic radiation reaching Earth’s surface. This radiation originates in the Earth’s stratosphere, primarily within the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, where primary cosmic radiation particles collide with atmospheric gas molecules, initiating cascades of secondary particles.

“While it may initially seem unusual to link earthquakes and cosmic radiation, which primarily originates from the Sun and deep space, there is a rational basis underlying this connection,” explains Dr. Piotr Homola (IFJ PAN and AstroCeNT CAMK PAN), the coordinator of CREDO and lead author of the research published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.

The central concept revolves around the observation that eddy currents within the Earth’s liquid core generate its magnetic field. This field alters the trajectories of charged particles from primary cosmic radiation. Consequently, if significant earthquakes were associated with disruptions in the matter flows that drive the Earth’s dynamo, these disturbances would affect the magnetic field, subsequently influencing the paths of primary cosmic radiation particles in a manner dependent on the dynamics of the disturbances within the planet. Ground-based detectors would consequently register changes in the detected numbers of secondary cosmic ray particles.

CREDO physicists conducted comprehensive analyses of cosmic ray intensity data obtained from the Neutron Monitor Database project’s two stations (collected over the past fifty years) and the Pierre Auger Observatory (collected since 2005). The choice of these observatories was driven by their locations on both sides of the equator and the utilization of different detection techniques. The analyses accounted for solar activity changes, as documented in the database maintained by the Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre. Essential seismic activity information was sourced from the U.S. Geological Survey program.

Multiple statistical techniques were employed for the analyses. In each case, a distinct correlation emerged between fluctuations in the intensity of secondary cosmic radiation and the cumulative magnitude of all earthquakes measuring four or greater on the Richter scale. Notably, this correlation became apparent only when the cosmic ray data were shifted 15 days forward relative to the seismic data. This encouraging outcome implies the potential to detect upcoming earthquakes well in advance.

Regrettably, the analyses do not provide a clear indication of whether it will be feasible to pinpoint the locations of cataclysmic events. Location-specific analyses fail to reveal correlations between changes in cosmic ray intensity and earthquakes, whereas such correlations manifest only when seismic activity is considered on a global scale. This observation suggests that cosmic ray intensity changes may represent a phenomenon affecting our planet as a whole.

“In the scientific community, a discovery is typically deemed established when the statistical confidence level of the supporting data reaches five sigma, or standard deviations. In the case of the observed correlation, we obtained more than six sigma, translating to less than a one-in-a-billion chance that the correlation is merely a coincidence. Consequently, we possess a robust statistical foundation for claiming the existence of a genuine phenomenon. The remaining question is whether it is precisely the one we anticipated,” ponders Dr. Homola.

Indeed, the discovered correlation’s global nature and the 15-day lead time in seismic activity observed through cosmic radiation present only a fraction of the intriguing puzzles associated with this revelation. A significant surprise lies in the large-scale periodicity of the correlation—an unexpected phenomenon. The analyses indicate that the correlation’s maximum point occurs every 10-11 years, coinciding with the solar activity cycle to some extent. However, it does not align with the peak solar activity!

Additionally, other enigmatic periodicities are observed in both cosmic ray and seismic data, such as periodic variations in seismic activity and the intensity of secondary cosmic radiation over a cycle corresponding to approximately 24 hours minus ~236 seconds, the Earth’s stellar day. Could these cosmic-seismic correlations stem from an extraterrestrial factor capable of inducing radiation and seismic effects simultaneously, perhaps resulting from the Earth passing through a dark matter stream modulated by the Sun and other massive bodies within our solar system? What conventional physical phenomenon could explain these apparent correlations qualitatively?

The absence of classical explanations for the observed periodicities prompts contemplation of the potential involvement of unconventional phenomena. One plausible candidate is the Earth’s traversal of a dark matter stream influenced by the Sun and other celestial bodies in our planetary system. The Earth, with its substantial magnetic field, functions as an incredibly sensitive particle detector, surpassing human-built instruments in size and sensitivity. Consequently, it is reasonable to consider the Earth’s response to phenomena that remain imperceptible to existing measurement devices.

“Regardless of the source of these observed periodicities, the most crucial aspect of the current research stage is that we have established a connection between cosmic radiation recorded at the Earth’s surface and seismic activity. What we can assert with certainty is that our observation unveils fresh and exciting avenues for research,” concludes Dr. Homola.

Reference: “Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle” by P. Homola, V. Marchenko, A. Napolitano, R. Damian, R. Guzik, D. Alvarez-Castillo, S. Stuglik, O. Ruimi, O. Skorenok, J. Zamora-Saa, J.M. Vaquero, T. Wibig, M. Knap, K. Dziadkowiec, M. Karpiel, O. Sushchov, J.W. Mietelski, K. Gorzkiewicz, N. Zabari, K. Almeida Cheminant, B. Idźkowski, T. Bulik, G. Bhatta, N. Budnev, R. Kamiński, M.V. Medvedev, K. Kozak, O. Bar, Ł. Bibrzycki, M. Bielewicz, M. Frontczak, P. Kovács, B. Łozowski, J. Miszczyk, M. Niedźwiecki, L. del Peral, M. Piekarczyk, M.D. Rodriguez Frias, K. Rzecki, K. Smelcerz, T. Sośnicki, J. Stasielak and A.A. Tursunov, 13 April 2023, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068

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• CREDO Project
• Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
• Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IFJ PAN)
• Neutron Monitor Database project
• Pierre Auger Observatory
• Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre