A groundbreaking study is sounding the alarm about a looming mass extinction event driven by unprecedented global heat, which could imperil nearly all mammals approximately 250 million years from now.
This research anticipates a mass extinction event for mammals in the distant future, precisely 250 million years away. The primary culprit behind this dire prediction is the formation of a supercontinent, which is expected to bring together a lethal combination of factors: a hotter sun, elevated levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), and continental effects. These elements underscore the significance of the arrangement of landmasses in assessing the habitability of exoplanets.
The study paints a grim picture of an impending mass extinction caused by extreme heat, potentially comparable to the one that wiped out the dinosaurs. This dire prognosis comes from research published on September 25 in the prestigious journal Nature Geoscience. Led by the University of Bristol, this study utilizes cutting-edge supercomputer climate models to peer into the distant future. It reveals how climate extremes will intensify dramatically as Earth’s continents merge into a single scorching, arid, and largely uninhabitable supercontinent.
Factors Contributing to Extreme Temperatures
The research elucidates how these soaring temperatures are poised to escalate further. This escalation stems from an increasingly radiant sun, emitting more energy and consequently warming our planet. Additionally, tectonic processes within Earth’s crust, which lead to supercontinent formation, will trigger more frequent volcanic eruptions, releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and further exacerbating global warming.
Historically, mammals, including humans, have survived by adapting to varying weather conditions. This adaptation has included features like fur and hibernation to withstand cold weather and brief bouts of warm-weather hibernation. However, while mammals have evolved to endure lower temperatures, their ability to tolerate extreme heat has remained relatively constant. Consequently, prolonged exposure to excessive heat would become an insurmountable challenge, rendering the climate conditions depicted in these simulations unsurvivable.
Implications for Mammals
Dr. Alexander Farnsworth, the lead author of this study and a Senior Research Associate at the University of Bristol, emphasizes the grim prospects: “The emergence of a supercontinent would create a triple threat, consisting of continentality effects, a hotter sun, and increased CO2 in the atmosphere, resulting in elevated temperatures across much of the planet. The outcome would be an inhospitable environment devoid of sustenance and hydration for mammals.”
Widespread temperatures between 40 to 50 degrees Celsius, coupled with extreme daily variations and high humidity levels, would ultimately seal the fate of humans and many other species. Our inability to dissipate heat through sweat and cool our bodies would lead to our demise.
While human-induced climate change and global warming are immediate concerns, this research suggests that Earth should remain habitable until the seismic event of supercontinent formation, projected to occur in the distant future. However, once this supercontinent forms, only a meager 8% to 16% of the land would be habitable for mammals.
Addressing the Current Climate Crisis
Co-author Dr. Eunice Lo, a Research Fellow in Climate Change and Health at the University of Bristol, underscores the urgency of addressing the current climate crisis caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases. While the study predicts an uninhabitable planet in 250 million years, today’s world is already experiencing extreme heat that poses significant health risks. Thus, it is imperative to swiftly achieve net-zero emissions.
Methodology and Future Projections
This international team of scientists employed climate models to simulate temperature, wind, rain, and humidity patterns for the future supercontinent, known as Pangea Ultima, expected to form in the next 250 million years. Estimating future CO2 levels involved modeling tectonic plate movement, ocean chemistry, and biological processes to track CO2 inputs and outputs.
Professor Benjamin Mills at the University of Leeds, responsible for future CO2 calculations, cautioned that without halting fossil fuel consumption, CO2 levels could rise from today’s 400 parts per million (ppm) to over 600 ppm within many millions of years.
Dr. Farnsworth, who is also a visiting Professor at the Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, presents a somber outlook for the distant future. He envisions carbon dioxide levels doubling, a sun emitting 2.5% more radiation, and the supercontinent mainly situated in hot, humid tropical regions. This would result in large portions of the planet experiencing temperatures ranging from 40 to 70 °C.
Relevance to Exoplanet Research
Furthermore, this research highlights the significance of tectonics and continental arrangements in the study of exoplanets, planets beyond our solar system. Although Earth is expected to remain within the habitable zone in 250 million years, the formation of a supercontinent with heightened carbon dioxide levels will render most of the world uninhabitable for mammals. This implies that the layout of landmasses on a distant planet could be a crucial factor in determining its habitability for humans.
Reference: “Climate extremes likely to drive land mammal extinction during next supercontinent assembly” by Alexander Farnsworth, Y. T. Eunice Lo, Paul J. Valdes, Jonathan R. Buzan, Benjamin J. W. Mills, Andrew S. Merdith, Christopher R. Scotese, and Hannah R. Wakeford, 25 September 2023, Nature Geoscience. DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01259-3
This research was conducted as part of a funded project supported by the UK Research and Innovation Natural Environment Research Council (UKRI NERC) focused on studying the climates of supercontinents and mass extinctions.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about extreme heat-driven mass extinction
What is the main finding of the study?
The main finding of the study is that an impending mass extinction event is predicted to occur approximately 250 million years from now due to extreme heat resulting from the formation of a supercontinent. This extreme heat is expected to endanger nearly all mammals, including humans.
What factors contribute to the extreme temperatures mentioned in the study?
Several factors contribute to the extreme temperatures predicted in the study. These include a brighter sun emitting more energy, which leads to warming of the Earth. Additionally, tectonic processes, such as those responsible for supercontinent formation, are expected to cause more frequent volcanic eruptions, releasing significant amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, further intensifying global warming.
How have mammals historically adapted to varying weather conditions?
Mammals, including humans, have historically adapted to varying weather conditions through features such as fur and the ability to hibernate in cold weather. These adaptations have allowed them to survive in different climates, particularly in response to cold temperatures and short periods of warm weather hibernation.
What makes exposure to prolonged extreme heat particularly challenging for mammals?
While mammals have evolved to tolerate lower temperatures, their tolerance for extreme heat has remained relatively constant. This means that exposure to prolonged periods of excessive heat, as projected in the study’s climate simulations, would be extremely challenging for mammals to overcome and could ultimately prove unsurvivable.
What percentage of land is expected to remain habitable for mammals after the formation of the supercontinent?
The study suggests that once the supercontinent forms, only a relatively small portion of the land, estimated to be between 8% and 16%, would remain habitable for mammals. This indicates that the majority of the world’s landmasses would become inhospitable due to the extreme heat and other climatic changes.
What implications does this research have for addressing the current climate crisis?
While the study focuses on a future scenario, it emphasizes the importance of addressing the current climate crisis caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases. The researchers stress the urgency of achieving net-zero emissions as soon as possible to mitigate the impact of extreme heat and other climate-related challenges.
How was the research conducted, and what methods were used to make these future predictions?
The research involved the use of supercomputer climate models to simulate temperature, wind, rain, and humidity patterns for the future supercontinent, known as Pangea Ultima, expected to form in 250 million years. Future CO2 levels were estimated using models of tectonic plate movement, ocean chemistry, and biological processes to track CO2 inputs and outputs.
What are the implications of this research for the study of exoplanets?
This research highlights the significance of considering tectonics and continental arrangements when studying planets beyond our solar system, known as exoplanets. It suggests that the layout of landmasses on a distant planet could be a crucial factor in determining its habitability for humans, similar to the challenges posed by the future supercontinent on Earth.
Who funded this research?
The research was part of a funded project supported by the UK Research and Innovation Natural Environment Research Council (UKRI NERC). This project focused on studying the climates of supercontinents and mass extinctions.
3 comments
wow, dis article is super sciency, talkin’ ’bout crazy hot earth 250 mil years from now. humans gonna roast!
impt research but sad news, earth gettin’ way 2 hot. need stop burnin’ fossil fuels now!
interstng how supercontinent matter for exoplanets, makes u think ’bout other worlds. #ScienceIsCool