Transitioning to Plant-Based Foods: A Comprehensive Strategy for Global Environmental Preservation

Recent research indicates that a shift from animal-derived products such as meat and dairy to plant-based substitutes can lead to substantial enhancements in climate stability and biodiversity conservation. Utilizing the lands formerly used for animal agriculture for reforestation could augment these positive effects.

The study reveals that replacing half of the consumption of animal-derived meat and milk with plant-based options by the year 2050 could lower greenhouse gas emissions related to agriculture and land use by 31%. Moreover, this shift could effectively halt the degradation of forests and other natural landscapes. This information is presented in a study published today (September 12) in the scientific journal Nature Communications. The paper also suggests that reclaiming and reforesting lands that are freed from livestock farming could multiply climate benefits and reduce future biodiversity decline by half by 2050. Such reforested areas could contribute to as much as 25% of global land restoration goals under Target 2 of the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by the year 2030.

Study Background

This groundbreaking research is the first to examine the global implications of plant-based meat and dairy alternatives on both food security and environmental sustainability on a large scale. The research was carried out independently by IIASA in collaboration with the Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT, as well as USAID. The study also included input from Impossible Foods, a company specializing in plant-based meat substitutes, to ensure data relevance. However, the data is not exclusive to Impossible Foods, and the research team maintained full decision-making autonomy.

Marta Kozicka, the lead author of the study and a researcher at IIASA’s Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, states that shifts in dietary patterns could serve as robust strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and could yield considerable improvements in biodiversity conservation.

Eva Wollenberg, coauthor of the study from the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, emphasizes that transitioning to plant-based diets not only addresses climate and health objectives but also represents significant challenges that require technological advancements and policy changes.

Scenarios and Outcomes

The study outlines various scenarios featuring plant-based recipes as substitutes for beef, pork, chicken, and milk. These recipes aim to provide nutritional equivalents to their animal-derived counterparts. The authors found that a 50% substitution by 2050 would significantly reduce the environmental footprint of food systems, including:

• A 12% reduction in global agricultural land use
• Nearly halting the loss of forests and other natural lands
• A nearly 50% reduction in nitrogen inputs to farmland
• A 10% decrease in water usage
• A decrease in greenhouse gas emissions by 2.1 Gt CO2 equivalent per year by 2050, compared to the average of 1.6 Gt CO2 equivalent per year from 2020–2050

Additionally, the number of undernourished individuals globally could decrease by 31 million.

Afforestation and Biodiversity Enhancement

The environmental gains from dietary transitions could be maximized if lands freed from livestock farming are conscientiously reforested. In a scenario with 50% substitution and reforestation, the benefits could double compared to a scenario without afforestation—totaling a 6.3 Gt CO2 equivalent per year reduction by 2050. Under a 90% substitution scenario, this could escalate to 11.1 Gt CO2 equivalent per year by 2050. Such efforts would also lead to a considerable improvement in biodiversity levels.

Petr Havlík, who coordinated the study, emphasizes that the full potential of dietary shifts can only be realized if coupled with targeted production policies. Otherwise, gains might be offset by inefficient land use and increased greenhouse gas emissions.

Regional Considerations and Impediments

The study also notes that regional variations could influence the impact of these transitions due to demographic differences, agricultural productivity, and trade. Strategies should, therefore, be tailored to regional circumstances for maximum effectiveness.

While plant-based substitutes hold promise, the study acknowledges the social and economic importance of livestock farming in low- and middle-income countries. Hence, a balanced and rapid policy action is crucial to ensure a just and sustainable transition in food systems, particularly given the recent challenges to global food security.

Reference: “Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives” by Kozicka, M., Havlík, P., Valin, H., Wollenberg, E., Deppermann, A., Leclère, D., Lauri, P., Moses, R., Boere, E., Frank, S., Davis, C., Park, E., Gurwick, N., published on September 12, 2023, in Nature Communications.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40899-2

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Plant-Based Alternatives and Environmental Sustainability

More about Plant-Based Alternatives and Environmental Sustainability

• Nature Communications Journal
• IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
• Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT
• United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
• Impossible Foods Company
• Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework
• Gund Institute, University of Vermont