In the past decade, human-induced warming has reached a deeply concerning average of 1.14°C. This alarming trend is further intensified by the release of an all-time high volume of greenhouse gases, equivalent to a staggering 54 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. Simultaneously, the remaining carbon budget, representing the maximum allowable carbon dioxide emissions to maintain a favorable chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, has dramatically diminished. Over the past three years, it has been reduced by half. To address the lack of awareness surrounding this critical issue, prominent scientists have launched an innovative project aimed at providing annual updates on key climate indicators. By keeping the public well-informed about the crucial aspects of global warming, this initiative aims to combat the prevailing ignorance.
According to 50 leading scientists, human-induced global warming continues to accelerate at an unprecedented rate since the previous comprehensive assessment of the climate system, published two years ago.
One researcher described the analysis as a “timely wake-up call,” highlighting the current inadequacy and delay in climate action. This message is particularly relevant as climate experts convene in Bonn, preparing for the major COP28 climate conference scheduled for December in the UAE. The conference will assess our progress in achieving the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C by 2050.
Given the rapidly changing global climate system, policymakers, climate negotiators, and civil society groups must have access to current and robust scientific evidence to make informed decisions.
The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) serves as the authoritative source of scientific information on the state of the climate. However, the turnaround time for its major assessments is five or ten years, resulting in an “information gap,” particularly when climate indicators are evolving rapidly.
Led by the University of Leeds, the scientists have developed an open data and open science platform called the Indicators of Global Climate Change and website. This platform will provide annual updates on key climate indicators.
The Indicators of Global Climate Change Project is coordinated by Professor Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at Leeds. He emphasizes that this is the crucial decade for climate change and the decisions made during this period will significantly impact the extent of temperature rise and the severity of resulting impacts. Currently, long-term warming rates are at an unprecedented high, largely attributed to record-breaking greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is evidence that the rate of increase in emissions has slowed down.
Professor Forster stresses the urgency of adapting to climate change and adjusting policies based on the latest evidence about the state of the climate system. Time is no longer on our side, and access to up-to-date information is of paramount importance.
In a publication in the journal Earth System Science Data, the scientists have disclosed how key indicators have changed since the release of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Working Group 1 report in 2021, which provided crucial data for the subsequent IPCC Sixth Synthesis Report.
Here are the significant findings of the analysis:
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Human-induced warming, primarily caused by fossil fuel combustion, has risen to an average of 1.14°C above pre-industrial levels for the most recent decade (2013-2022). This represents an increase from 1.07°C between 2010 and 2019.
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Human-induced warming is currently accelerating at a pace exceeding 0.2°C per decade.
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The analysis also reveals that greenhouse gas emissions have reached an all-time high. Human activities have led to an average release of approximately 54 (+/-5.3) gigatonnes (or billion metric tonnes) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year over the past decade (2012-2021).
Although there has been progress in reducing coal consumption, this has temporarily contributed to global warming by decreasing particulate pollution in the air, which has a cooling effect.
The remaining carbon budget, which estimates the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted to maintain a 50% chance of keeping global temperature rise within 1.5°C, is a significant finding of the analysis. The IPCC calculated in 2020 that the remaining carbon budget was approximately 500 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. However, by the beginning of 2023, this estimate had reduced to roughly half, around 250 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. The decline is attributed to ongoing emissions since 2020 and updated assessments of human-induced warming.
Professor Forster warns that even though we have not yet reached 1.5°C of warming, the carbon budget is likely to be exhausted within a few years due to the compounding effects of high CO2 emissions, increases in other greenhouse gas emissions, and reductions in pollution. To prevent the 1.5°C target from slipping away, urgent and intensified efforts are necessary to reduce emissions.
The Indicators of Global Climate Change project aims to provide policymakers and other key stakeholders with up-to-date and timely data, enabling them to take swift action.
Dr. Valérie Masson-Delmotte, co-chair of Working Group 1 of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment report and involved in the climate indicators project, emphasizes that the robust update demonstrates the escalating warming caused by human activities. It serves as a timely wake-up call for the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement in 2023, highlighting the insufficiency of current climate action in limiting the escalation of climate-related risks.
As recent IPCC reports have confirmed, with each incremental rise in global warming, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and agricultural droughts, increase.
The Indicators of Global Climate Change project will provide annual updates on greenhouse gas emissions, human-induced global warming, and the remaining carbon budget. The website extends the Climate Change Tracker, a successful climate dashboard inspired by the finance industry’s approach to presenting complex information to the public.
Key Findings:
Climate Indicator | Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) | Latest Value
Greenhouse gas emissions (decadal average) | 53 GtCO2e (2010-2019) | 54 Gt CO2e (2012-2021)
Human-induced warming since preindustrial times | 1.07°C | 1.14°C
Remaining carbon budget (1.5°C, 50% chance) | 500 GtCO2 | About 250 GtCO2 (with high uncertainty)
Reference: “Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence” by Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai, 8 June 2023, Earth System Science Data. DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023. Funding: EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, NERC/IIASA, ERC-2020-SyG “GENIE”.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Global warming
What is the significance of the annual update on climate indicators?
The annual update on climate indicators provides crucial information about key aspects of global warming, including greenhouse gas emissions, human-induced warming, and the remaining carbon budget. It serves as a timely wake-up call, highlighting the escalating rate of global warming and the urgent need for climate action. Policymakers, climate negotiators, and civil society groups can use this up-to-date scientific data to make informed decisions and adjust policies accordingly.
How do the greenhouse gas emissions compare to previous years?
The analysis reveals that greenhouse gas emissions have reached an all-time high. Human activities have contributed to an average release of approximately 54 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year over the last decade (2012-2021). This emphasizes the pressing need to reduce emissions and transition to cleaner energy sources to mitigate the impacts of global warming.
What is the remaining carbon budget?
The remaining carbon budget refers to the estimated amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted while still maintaining a 50% chance of limiting global temperature rise within 1.5°C. The analysis shows that the remaining carbon budget has significantly diminished over the years. By the beginning of 2023, it was estimated to be approximately 250 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, down from 500 gigatonnes estimated by the IPCC in 2020. This reduction underscores the urgency of reducing emissions and taking immediate action to prevent exceeding critical temperature thresholds.
How can the annual update on climate indicators help address the climate crisis?
The annual update on climate indicators provides policymakers, climate negotiators, and civil society groups with up-to-date and robust scientific evidence. It enables them to stay informed about the state of the climate system and make evidence-based decisions. The timely data helps highlight the urgency of the climate crisis and encourages greater efforts to reduce emissions, mitigate global warming, and develop effective climate policies to safeguard the planet’s future.
More about Global warming
- Earth System Science Data: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
- Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds
- Climate Change Tracker
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
- Paris Agreement
