A new scientific methodology has been established that swiftly gathers critical data on the likelihood of a volcanic eruption. The method concentrates on three essential variables: the volcano’s altitude, the thickness of the rock layer that isolates the magma chamber from the Earth’s surface, and the mean chemical composition of the magma. This new approach provides fresh opportunities for pinpointing and monitoring the most hazardous active volcanoes without necessitating substantial technical and financial investments.
A research group from the University of Geneva (UNIGE) has delineated three readily quantifiable variables that shed light on the structural features of volcanoes, constituting an advance in the realm of risk assessment and precautionary actions.
Assessing the risk of a volcanic eruption necessitates an in-depth understanding of a volcano’s internal configuration. Acquiring such pivotal data has traditionally been a lengthy process, involving extended fieldwork, data analysis, and ongoing observation. Consequently, a mere 30% of the world’s active volcanoes have been comprehensively studied.
The research team from UNIGE has formulated an expedited method for collecting critical data. Their work, published in the academic journal Geology, emphasizes three salient parameters: the elevation of the volcano, the depth of the intervening rock layer between the magma chamber and the Earth’s surface, and the magma’s average chemical attributes. These insights offer new directions for the identification of volcanoes that represent the most significant threats.
While the Earth houses approximately 1,500 active volcanoes, comprehensive data exists for only about 30% of them. This limitation arises from the challenges associated with studying the volcanoes’ “fuel”—the informative but elusive magma. Originating at depths ranging from 60 km to 150 km within the Earth’s mantle, the magma is largely inaccessible, as the deepest human-made boreholes scarcely reach a depth of 10 kilometers (6.2 miles). The generation rate of magma beneath a volcano’s crust significantly influences the scale and frequency of subsequent eruptions.
More than 800 million people reside in proximity to active volcanoes, which makes the dearth of reliable data a significant public safety concern. In numerous regions, there exists no empirical foundation for evaluating the risks posed by a specific volcano, or for determining protective actions, such as delineating evacuation zones, in the event of a possible eruption.
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Three Pivotal Parameters
Traditional geochemical and geophysical methods employed to observe volcanoes can require decades to develop a thorough understanding of a particular volcano’s behavior. Recent studies led by Luca Caricchi, a full professor at UNIGE’s Department of Earth Sciences, now enable the quicker acquisition of essential data.
The methodology utilizes three easily ascertainable parameters: the volcano’s altitude, the thickness of the rock layer segregating the magma chamber from the surface, and the magma’s historical chemical composition. The first can be measured via satellite technology, the second through geophysical methods or chemical analysis of volcanic rock minerals, and the third through direct field sampling.
A Comprehensive Picture
Upon examining data from the volcanic arc of the Lesser Antilles, a thoroughly studied chain of volcanic islands, the UNIGE team identified a correlation between a volcano’s height and the rate of magma production. “Taller volcanoes tend to produce larger eruptions on average over their lifetimes. In simpler terms, they can release greater volumes of magma in individual events,” explains Oliver Higgins, a previous doctoral candidate in Luca Caricchi’s group.
The scientists also discovered that a thinner Earth’s crust beneath a volcano implies a nearer magma chamber to the surface and a more thermally mature volcano. Luca Caricchi further elucidates that the supply rate of magma has a direct impact on its temperature maintenance and its capability to erode the Earth’s crust.
High-Risk Volcano Identification
Finally, the team found that the average chemical properties of previously erupted magma serve as an indicator of its potential explosiveness. Elevated levels of silica, for instance, signify that the volcano is sustained by large magma quantities, thereby increasing the likelihood of a significant, explosive eruption.
Collectively, the three parameters outlined by the UNIGE researchers offer a comprehensive “snapshot” of a volcano’s internal architecture. These factors facilitate a preliminary hazard assessment of insufficiently studied volcanoes without requiring extensive technical and financial resources. The methodology is applicable for the identification of active volcanoes that are most prone to causing large-scale eruptions and therefore warrant increased monitoring.
Reference: “Eruptive dynamics reflect crustal structure and mantle productivity beneath volcanoes” by Oliver Higgins and Luca Caricchi, 11 August 2023, Geology.
DOI: 10.1130/G51355.1
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Volcanic Eruption Forecasting
What is the main objective of the new scientific methodology?
The primary objective of the new scientific methodology is to swiftly gather critical data to assess the likelihood of a volcanic eruption. The approach focuses on three key parameters: the volcano’s elevation, the thickness of the rock layer separating the magma chamber from the Earth’s surface, and the magma’s average chemical composition.
Who conducted the research and where was it published?
The research was conducted by a team from the University of Geneva (UNIGE), specifically the Department of Earth Sciences. The findings were published in the academic journal Geology on 11 August 2023.
How many active volcanoes are there, and what percentage have been comprehensively studied?
There are approximately 1,500 active volcanoes on Earth. However, comprehensive data exists for only about 30% of them due to the challenges associated with studying their internal structures and magma characteristics.
What three parameters does the methodology focus on?
The methodology focuses on three easily measurable parameters: the volcano’s altitude, the thickness of the intervening rock layer between the magma chamber and the Earth’s surface, and the magma’s average chemical attributes.
How are these parameters measured?
The altitude of the volcano can be determined through satellite technology. The thickness of the rock layer can be gauged via geophysical methods or chemical analysis of volcanic rock minerals. The chemical composition of the magma is ascertained through direct field sampling.
Why is this research significant for public safety?
The research is crucial for public safety because more than 800 million people live close to active volcanoes. The lack of reliable data on a large number of these volcanoes makes it challenging to assess the risks they pose or to establish protective measures, such as evacuation perimeters.
What does the study reveal about the correlation between a volcano’s height and the rate of magma production?
The study, after analyzing data from the volcanic arc of the Lesser Antilles, revealed that taller volcanoes tend to produce magma at a higher rate. Consequently, they are more likely to have larger eruptions over their lifetimes.
What implications does the average chemical composition of magma have on a volcano’s eruptive nature?
The average chemical composition of previously erupted magma serves as an indicator of the volcano’s potential explosiveness. Elevated levels of silica, for instance, signify that the volcano is fed by large quantities of magma, thereby increasing the likelihood of a large, explosive eruption.
How does this research advance the field of volcano risk assessment?
The research advances the field by providing a faster method for obtaining essential data about a volcano’s internal structure and eruptive potential. This enables initial hazard assessments for volcanoes that have been insufficiently studied, without the need for extensive technical and financial resources.
Can this methodology be applied universally to all active volcanoes?
The methodology is designed to be applicable for identifying active volcanoes that are most prone to causing large-scale eruptions. However, the text does not specify if there are limitations to its universal application, but it does imply that it can be used for initial assessments of insufficiently studied volcanoes.
More about Volcanic Eruption Forecasting
- University of Geneva Department of Earth Sciences
- Journal of Geology
- Volcano Hazard Assessment Techniques
- Earth’s Active Volcanoes
- Lesser Antilles Volcanic Arc
- Silica Content and Explosive Volcanic Eruptions
- Volcanic Risk Assessment: An Overview
- DOI: 10.1130/G51355.1
1 comment
Wow, this is groundbreaking stuff! Can’t believe they’ve found a way to predict volcanic eruptions more easily. This could really save lives,