Scientists from Sweden’s Chalmers University of Technology and Lund University suggest that the world is on track for a global temperature rise of 2.5-3 degrees Celsius, surpassing the 2-degree goal set by the Paris Agreement, due to the gradual reduction of coal power. The study posits that the rise can be contained within 2 degrees if nations, notably large coal consumers such as China and India, hasten their transition away from coal. However, the scientists present scenarios that hint this is improbable due to inadequate pledges and geopolitical tensions.
The Paris Agreement’s target to restrict global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees seems to be challenging to achieve, with existing trends indicating a possible temperature surge of 2.5-3 degrees. Yet, the potential to circumvent this heightened warming still exists. This possibility has been illustrated in a new study conducted by researchers from Chalmers University of Technology and Lund University in Sweden.
Aleh Cherp, a professor at the International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics, Lund University. Image Credit: Central European University.
“A rising number of nations are vowing to eradicate coal from their energy systems, which is a good sign. However, their pledges are not resolute enough. To realistically attain the 2-degree goal, coal must be phased out at a faster rate,” emphasizes Aleh Cherp, professor at Lund University’s International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics.
Coal Phase-out Must Start in China and India
To keep the global temperature rise under 2 degrees relative to pre-industrial levels, coal phase-out is crucial. A group of researchers in the Mistra Electrification study evaluated the commitments made by 72 nations to discontinue their coal usage between 2022 and 2050.
The scientists present an optimistic scenario where the temperature rise remains at 2 degrees. This outlook, however, depends on factors like China and India commencing their coal phase-out within five years. This transition needs to be as swift as that of the UK, the fastest in any large nation, and quicker than what Germany has pledged. Such a fast transition could lead to disparities that international policies will need to address.
Jessica Jewell, an Associate Professor at the Division of Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University of Technology. Image Credit: Chalmers.
Up to 3 Degrees of Global Warming is a Real Possibility
The research team also proposed scenarios which they believe are the most likely. These scenarios suggest a trajectory towards global warming of 2.5-3 degrees.
“The pledges made by countries are inadequate, even among the most ambitious nations. Furthermore, geopolitical events like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could hinder some nations from following through on their coal phase-out promises,” states Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor at the Division of Physical Resource Theory at Chalmers University of Technology.
The study finds that the commitments of the 72 nations to phase out coal are similar and align with historical data on the pace of coal phase-out.
Referenced study: “Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns” by Vadim Vinichenko, Marta Vetier, Jessica Jewell, Lola Nacke, and Aleh Cherp, published on January 11, 2023, in Environmental Research Letters.
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acadf6
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Global Warming Predictions
What is the main prediction made by the researchers in this study?
The researchers from Chalmers University of Technology and Lund University in Sweden predict that the world is likely heading towards a temperature increase of 2.5–3 degrees Celsius. This surpasses the 2-degree goal set by the Paris Agreement, largely due to the gradual reduction of coal power.
Who are the main contributors to this possible temperature increase?
China and India, as major coal users, are pointed out as significant contributors to the potential temperature increase. The study implies that if these nations expedite the coal phase-out process, global warming could still be limited to 2 degrees.
What is required for the global temperature rise to remain at 2 degrees?
According to the research, the temperature increase can be kept at 2 degrees if nations, especially China and India, hasten the transition away from coal. However, the transition should be as swift as the UK’s, the fastest ever in any large nation, and quicker than what Germany has pledged.
What is the likely scenario, according to the researchers?
The researchers have developed scenarios which they believe are the most probable, indicating a movement towards global warming of 2.5–3 degrees. They attribute this to inadequate commitments from countries and geopolitical conflicts that may prevent some nations from phasing out coal as promised.
What is the general reaction to the nations’ commitments to phase out coal?
The study finds that the commitments of 72 nations to phase out coal power are similar to each other and align with historical data. However, the researchers express concern that these commitments are not robust enough to meet the 2-degree target set by the Paris Agreement.
More about Global Warming Predictions
- Chalmers University of Technology
- Lund University
- The Paris Agreement
- International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics, Lund University
- Mistra Electrification
- Environmental Research Letters
- Full Research Paper
5 comments
This is really worrisome. we need to do something about it fast, else we’re doomed.
oh my! how can we still be using coal? It’s 2023, there are so many alternatives.
i dont get it, why countries can’t keep their promises? it’s our planet we’re talkin about!
we can’t just rely on governments. its time for individual action too, like using more public transport, recycling, etc.
This is why we need more investment in renewable energy. sooner the better.